[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends just
north of Tampa Florida near 28N82W to the coast of E Mexico near
22N97W. Observations from KMIS and KGRY oil platforms this morning
are indicating NE winds up to 40 kt at elevated anemometer
heights in the N central Gulf. Peak sustained winds at the surface
are near gale with frequent gusts to gale force. Buoy 42395 in the
central Gulf is reporting seas of 10 ft. Strong to near-gale
force N to NE winds are expected to continue north of the cold
front today, with frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal
waters of Texas eastward to the panhandle of Florida. Sustained gale-
force NW to N winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico late this
afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Wave heights in the
central Gulf will be up to 12 ft today and tonight before
diminishing on Fri.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 06N15W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N15W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of
04N west of 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
05N between 12W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect frequent gusts to gale force in the
coastal waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of
Florida as well as gale force sustain winds for the western Gulf
of Mexico near Tampico, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section for more details.

Elsewhere south of the cold front, scatterometer data this
morning shows gentle to moderate NE winds prevailing. A weak
surface trough is present in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Seas south of
the cold front are up to 5 ft, highest in the SW Gulf. Scattered
showers are present within 60 nmi of the cold front.

The cold front will move rapidly SE across the remainder of the
Gulf waters through tonight. Strong winds, frequent gusts to gale
force, and building seas are expected behind the front today, with
gale-force winds likely near the coast of Mexico late this
afternoon. Winds will diminish across the region Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean
between the Bermuda High and a 1006 mb low over northern Colombia
is producing strong to near-gale NE to E trades. Seas are up to
12 ft in the area of strongest winds. A small area of strong E
trades likely is also occurring just south of Hispaniola with seas
to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, NE to E trades are
moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 7 ft. No significant deep
convection is occurring today over the Caribbean though scattered
showers are noted in the NW Caribbean and just south of
Hispaniola.

A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through
Sat. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri, with the
highest winds near the Colombia coast. Fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N77W to near Cape Canaveral Florida
near 29N81W. NW winds behind the front are moderate to strong,
while SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to moderate. Seas are
currently 4 to 5 ft behind the front, but building quickly.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 72W
and 78W in association with a pre-frontal trough, which extends
from 31N75W to 24N81W.

The cold front will extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri,
from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from
23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold
front.

Farther east a cold front extends from 32N34W west-southwestward
to 26N60W where it transitions to a stationary front to 31N64W. SW
winds north of 29N ahead of the front are moderate to strong,
while NW veering to NE winds are only fresh to moderate behind the
front. A secondary cold front extends from 32N38W to 30N46W. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft are occurring north of 28N east of 50W mainly in NW
swell. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nmi of these
frontal boundaries. A large extratropical cyclone is expected to
move near our northern border producing strong to near gale E
winds and seas near 15 ft north of 27N east of 50W Fri and Sat
before diminishing Sun.

$$
Landsea
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