[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
western panhandle of Florida near 30N85W to the coast of NE
Mexico near 25N98W. Scatterometer data from earlier this morning
shows 25 to 30 kt N to NE winds north of the front. Buoy and ship
data show seas to 11 ft in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds are expected to continue north of the
cold front today, with frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal
waters of Texas and Louisiana, eastward to the panhandle of
Florida. Gale- force NW to N winds will develop near Tampico,
Mexico late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours.
Wave heights in the Gulf will be 8 to 13 ft today.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ axis continues from 04N17W to 03N22W to
00N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
south of 04N between 14W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico near
Tampico, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal
waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of Florida.
Please see the Special Features section for more details.

Scatterometer data this morning shows fresh NE winds in the
eastern Bay of Campeche, associated with a weak surface trough
near the western coast of the Yucatan peninsula. This trough is
expected to drift westward and weaken today, and winds in the area
will become gentle to moderate by the afternoon.

The cold front in the northern Gulf will move rapidly SE across
the remainder of the Gulf waters through tonight. Strong winds,
frequent gusts to gale force, and building seas are expected
behind the front today, with gale-force winds likely near the
coast of Mexico late this afternoon. Winds will diminish across
the region Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean
between high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea and lower
pressures in northern Colombia is producing strong winds near the
coast of Colombia. Scatterometer passes over the area earlier this
morning showed 25 to 30 kt NE winds, and seas are estimated to be
10 to 13 ft in the area of strongest winds. The scatterometer also
showed a small area of strong E to SE winds south of Hispaniola,
and fresh to strong winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean.

A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through
Sat. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri, with the
highest winds near the Colombia coast. Fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Wave heights
are forecast to build to the range of 8-11 ft in the Yucatan
Channel by tonight. Expect fresh to strong northeast winds in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a pre-frontal
trough moving east of the SE U.S. coast have shifted eastward and
decreased in intensity. Winds east of Florida are southerly, ahead
of a cold front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front in
the central Atlantic reaches from 32N34W to 27N46W to 26N54W, with
scattered shower activity noted along the frontal boundary. High
pressure is north of the area, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
near 37N58W.

A cold front will move east of northern Florida later today, then
extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to eastern
Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Windward
Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas
are expected in association with the cold front.

$$
Mundell
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