[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Special Features

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently
located along 79W, moving west at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-19N between
74W-83W. This wave will continue moving westward and interact
with the stationary front approaching the area. The wave will be
accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds. This feature is
expected to become part of a broad low-pressure area over the
western Caribbean within the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development with a
medium chance in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 00N-14N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-14N between 23W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 08N-15N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east
of the wave's axis from 08N-15N between 48W-56W.

A tropical wave axis is along 67W from 03N-19N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of
the waves axis from 11N-20N between 67W-63W. No significant
convection is noted south of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N20W
to 07N28W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N47W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section
above, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-
13n and east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen
near the ITCZ from 08N-15N between 43W-48W.

Gulf of Mexico...


A cold front extending from 30N76W to 23N86W to 18N92W continues
to produce scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the
boundary. Drier air is moving into the northwest Gulf behind the
cold front as surface ridging builds across the area. The most
recent scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds NW of the
front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail SE of the
front.

The cold front will support strong to near gale force winds in
the SW basin and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. The front
will move E of the basin by this evening. A second front will
enter the northern Gulf on Sat. Strong high pressure building
behind this front will support fresh northeast winds over most of
the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may reach strong
speeds on Sat along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the west Caribbean, while another
one is moving across Hispaniola. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details.

Across the southwest Caribbean, the extension of the EPAC's
monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N between 75W-82W with
scattered to numerous moderate convection. Scatterometer data
depicts light to moderate trade winds across most of the basin
except east of 76W, where fresh to strong winds are noted.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected over the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sat, and will decrease to gentle to
moderate for the remaining period. A tropical wave located over
the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over
the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system,
producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean
Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 41N43W. A surface
trough is seen in the latest ASCAT pass from 30N45W to 25N38W and
a second trough further east extending south from a low pressure
near 32N31W to 25N29W.

Moderate to fresh winds ahead and behind a cold front that
extends from 30N76W to 26N80W will prevail to the E of the
Bahamas through Thu as the front dissipates. A pair of tropical
waves will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Thu
through Sun and will support moderate to fresh winds over the SE
offshore waters, increasing to strong N of Hispaniola at night.

$
Torres
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