[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extending from 27N82W to 16N93W will continue to
support gale force winds in the SW basin behind the front through
12Z this morning. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
and NE of the front affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of
Campeche. Seas ranging between 12-16 ft will diminish through the
next 24 hours as the front weakens and dissipates. Please see
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 01N-15N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-14N between 23W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 50W from 01N-16N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of
the wave's axis from 08N-15N between 44W-52W.

A tropical wave axis is along 66W from 03N-19N, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of
this wave at this time.

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently
located along 77W, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N-22N between 75W-82W. This wave will
continue moving westward across the basin through the period
accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds. This feature is
expected to become part of a broad low-pressure area over the
western Caribbean within the next few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N48W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, no
significant convection is noted near these boundaries at this
time.

Gulf of Mexico...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the SW Gulf.

Drier air is moving into the northwest Gulf behind the cold
front as surface ridging builds across the area. The most recent
scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds NW of the front,
while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail SE of the front.

The front will continue to move E of the basin through today. A
second front will enter the northern Gulf on Sat. Strong high
pressure building behind this front will support fresh northeast
winds over most of the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds
may reach strong speeds on Sat along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the west Caribbean, while another
one is approaching Puerto Rico. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details.

Across the southwest Caribbean, the extension of the EPAC's monsoon
trough is analyzed along 10N between 75W-83W with scattered to
numerous moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts light to
moderate trade winds across most of the basin except east of 76W,
where fresh to strong winds are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the
eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean
through Thu morning. The tropical wave along 77W will move over
the Gulf of Honduras by Thu evening inducing fresh to strong winds
and building seas. There is a medium chance for this feature to
evolve into a tropical cyclone through the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 41N45W.

Fresh to strong winds mainly to the NE of the Bahamas will
prevail this morning ahead of a cold front that has entered the NW
forecast waters, extending from 31N79W to 28N81W. The front will
stall and dissipate through Thu. A tropical wave that will move
across the west Caribbean will support moderate to fresh winds
over the SE forecast waters this weekend.

$$
ERA
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