[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to
11N between 32W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 07N to 10N between 57W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
15N17W to 12N41W. The ITCZ is from 12N44W to 08N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 100 nm of the coast of Africa from
07N to 15N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low centered over the Carolinas extends a trough southwestward
into northern Florida. The northern Gulf is mostly devoid of
shower activity north of 25N. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is in the SW Gulf of Mexico from 19N to 24N
between 90W and 95W. Scatterometer data, ship and buoy
observations show light to gentle wind speeds over the basin.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon evening.
Strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the
basin, with gale force winds possible west of the front along
the coast of Mexico Mon night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest TPW imagery shows high moisture content covers the NW
Caribbean west of a line from central Cuba to northern Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from
western Cuba to Belize. Isolated showers prevail elsewhere
across the basin. Scatterometer data and ship obs show moderate
trade winds in the central Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean through early Sun, becoming fresh to strong by Wed.
Moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 32N48W to 25N58W, and
a surface trough is evident from satellite and scatterometer
data from 27N61W southward to near Puerto Rico. A weak cyclonic
circulation associated with the trough is centered near 26N65W.
Active convection that moved eastward off the Florida peninsula
has mostly dissipated, but a few showers remain from 23N to 28N
between 76W and 79W in the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a large
upper-level low centered near 26N34W is supporting scattered
showers over a large area between 24W and 35W, north of 15N.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected NE of the Bahamas this
weekend as the surface trough moves west across the western
Atlantic. A cold front will move east of Florida on Wed.

$$
Mundell
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