[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: the precipitation is close to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 13N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: the precipitation is close to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 93W, from 18N southward, from the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong in
clusters is from 15N to 23N between 88W and 95W. The
precipitation covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and parts of Guatemala and in Mexico between
Guatemala and the 93W tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W,  08N30W, 12N34W, and
12N44W. The ITCZ is along 12N44W, to the coast of Guyana near
07N59W.  Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated/widely
scattered strong is in the coastal plains and coastal waters of
Africa from 07N to 14N between 11W and 18W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the Yucatan
Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A tropical wave is along 93W, from 18N southward, from the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong in
clusters is from 15N to 23N between 88W and 95W. The
precipitation covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and parts of Guatemala and in Mexico between
Guatemala and the 93W tropical wave. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 25N southward from 92W eastward.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Monday evening. Strong northerly winds are expected in the
western half of the basin, with gale force winds possible to the
west of the front along the coast of Mexico on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea to the northwest of the line that runs from Hispaniola to
the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough from NW Venezuela to
the Mona Passage, covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
Caribbean Sea from 75W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N/13N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N
southward from 70W westward.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the central Caribbean
Sea through Wednesday, becoming fresh to strong near the coast
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere across most of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
between 40W and 60W, from 25N northward, with a NE-to-SW
oriented trough. A dissipating stationary front is along 32N48W
to 25N58W. A surface trough curves northeastward, from just to
the east of Puerto Rico to 26N62W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150
nm to the west of the trough from 24N to 27N. Isolated moderate
to locally strong also is from 16N northward between 50W and the
surface trough. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is to the west of the
dissipating stationary front. The anticyclonic wind flow is
related to the Yucatan Channel anticyclonic circulation center.

An upper level trough extends from the waters that are between
the Canary Islands and the Azores, to Trinidad and NE Venezuela.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 600 nm on either side
of trough.Inidividual cyclonic circulation centers are in the
overall area of broad cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected to the NE of the Bahamas
this weekend, as a surface trough moves westward, to the north
of the Greater Antilles. A cold front will move to the east of
Florida on Wednesday.

$$
mt
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