[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA, at 24/0300 UTC, is
inland in Louisiana, near 31.1N 91.8W. This position is about 70
km to the E of Alexandria in Louisiana. BETA is moving toward
the NE, or 055 degrees, 12 miles per hour. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 30 miles per hour. The hazards to the public and property
will be: rainfall, flooding, and possible tornadoes. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY, at 24/0300 UTC, is
near 51.0N 57.3W. TEDDY is moving toward the NNE, or 030
degrees, 28 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to
55 knots. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from
your local weather office.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/31W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 15N between
27W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/42W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side
of the tropical wave, from 16N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W, and 06N33W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N33W, to 06N40W, and to 05N51W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 10N to 14N between 14W and
18W, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 12N between
18W and 27W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 12N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA, at 24/0300 UTC, is
inland in Louisiana, near 31.1N 91.8W. This position is about 70
km to the E of Alexandria in Louisiana. BETA is moving toward
the NE, or 055 degrees, 12 miles per hour. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 30 miles per hour. The hazards to the public and property
will be: rainfall, flooding, and possible tornadoes. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows broad cyclonic
wind flow from 86W westward.
The 1005 mb remnant low pressure center of BETA is in east
central Louisiana, near 31.1N 91.8W.
A cold front extends from the low pressure center to 26N94W in
the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating stationary front extends
eastward from the 1005 mb low pressure center, toward the
Florida Panhandle. Precipitation inland: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north of the
dissipating stationary front. Other precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is to the east of the line that runs
from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in NW Cuba.
Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea from 73W westward, and the
Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward.

Remnants of an already dissipated stationary front will move
northward, as a surface trough, across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, during the next couple of days. It is possible that a
weak low pressure center may develop along the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 22N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
cutting across Cuba, to 25N86W in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N
to the stationary front between 60W and Hispaniola. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally strong is in
the interior and coastal waters areas of Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N
southward from 70W westward. The upper level wind flow that is
in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward is moving away from an
upper level ridge, and toward an inverted trough. The trough is
in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea, from the Yucatan
Peninsula toward northern sections of Colombia.

Northerly swell, previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and an
early season cold front in the western Atlantic Ocean, will
continue through Thursday. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds
will dominate the basin through the forecast period, with the
exception of fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N56W to 27N60W and 21N70W, to SE
Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 390 nm to the SE and ESE of the stationary
front, from 74W in the Caribbean Sea, northeastward to 32N.

A surface trough curves from 21N50W to 17N54W to 15N60W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N49W. A surface trough
extends from the low pressure center to 26N46W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N northward between 43W and the
precipitation that is associated with the stationary front.

Swell, previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and a cold front
that moved through the Atlantic Ocean at the start of the week,
will continue to subside gradually in the forecast area, into
Thursday night. Generally gentle to moderate easterly winds can
be expected into the weekend.

$$
mt
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