[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy is centered near 48.6N 59.6W at
23/2100 UTC, or 60 nm NNW of Port Aux Basques, Newfoundland,
moving NNE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 400 nm of the center in
the N semicircle. Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy will move NNE
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy will
move closer to northwestern Newfoundland tonight and into the
Labrador Sea on Thursday before becoming absorbed by a larger
non-tropical low. Little change in strength is forecast before
the system dissipates on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N-14N between 26W-32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 18N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is W of
the wave from 05N-13N between 40W-43W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N13W to 08N28W. Isolated moderate convection is south of
the monsoon trough from 05N-07N between 14W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southward from now Post-Tropical Cyclone
Beta from 30N94W to 26N95W. A stationary front continues to drape
across the central and eastern Gulf from the southeast Louisiana
coast near 29N90W to the NW coast of Cuba near 23N84W. Scattered
moderate convection is in the eastern Gulf from 22N-30N between
84W-89W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen across the Gulf with
light winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3-6 ft with up to 7
ft in the north-central Gulf.

A stationary front extending from SE Louisiana to western Cuba
will gradually dissipate. Remnants of the front, as a surface
trough, will lift northward across the eastern Gulf over the next
couple of days. A weak low may develop along the trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front is giving way to scattered moderate
convection across Cuba into the Mona Passage, N of 18N between
67W-83W. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from
the coast of Colombia near 11N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near
10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 14N between
74W-83W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across most of the
basin with light winds in the western Caribbean. Seas 2-4 ft.

Northerly swell previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and an
early season cold front in the western Atlantic has arrived in
Atlantic passages and will continue into Thu night. Mainly gentle
to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through the
forecast period, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds
near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 30N57W to 24N64W to the coast of
Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm
east of the front. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic
from 22N48W to 16N55W. Isolated showers are along the trough.
Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of the front between
42W-75W N of 24N with gentle to moderate winds south of 24N.
Seas in the central Atlantic are up to 8 ft with seas 9-15 ft in
the western Atlantic.

Swell previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and a cold front
that moved through at the start of the week will continue to
gradually subside over the forecast area through Thu night.
Generally gentle to moderate easterly winds can be expected for
the remainder of the week.

$$
AReinhart
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