[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 29.8N 96.3W at 22/2100 UTC,
or 30 nm N of Port O'Connor, Texas, moving ENE at 4 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
100 nm from the center in the N semicircle. Beta is expected to
continue moving east-northeast through Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern
Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi
Wednesday night through Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast
through Friday, and Beta is expected to become a remnant low
pressure system by late Wednesday. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 41.1N 64.2W at 22/2100 UTC, or
213 nm S of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently 52 ft with
12 ft seas within 660 nm in the NE quadrant, 780 nm in the SE
quadrant, 960 nm in the SW quadrant, and 360 nm in the NW
quadrant. Scattered moderate convection extends 218 nm N of the
center. Teddy will make a north-northeast turn by early
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over
Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on
Thursday. Although some weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 34.8N 21.2W at 22/2100
UTC, or 339 nm ESE of the Azores, moving E at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 100 nm of the center. An eastward to east-
northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease in
the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south
are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Slow weakening is
forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low by
Wednesday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is located along 22W S of 16N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-07N between 22W- 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 34W S of 19N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 06N27W. Scattered showers are within 200
nm of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Beta.

A stationary front stretches across the Gulf from NW Cuba near
23N83W to the southeast Texas coast near 30N94W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 70 nm of the front between 84W-91W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf with fresh to
strong winds in the NE Gulf. Seas 4 to 8 ft are noted with
upwards of 9 ft in the north-central Gulf.

Impacts from Beta, currently inland over Texas, will remain
confined to nearshore coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. A
stationary front extending from the north-central Gulf to western
Cuba will move little for the next day or so, then move back
northward on Thursday through Saturday. Development of this
system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is very unlikely late
this week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are E of front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends north of the Caribbean waters across
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the northwest
and north-central Caribbean N of 18N between 70W-86W. The monsoon
trough extends off the Panama coast to a 1008 mb low near 10N77W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough, S
of 14N between 75W-83W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across
the basin. Seas 1 to 3 ft.

Swell associated with extremely large Teddy moving away in the
north Atlantic as well as generated by a stationary front,
currently extending along 22N-23N W of 65W will impact much of
the Atlantic passages beginning tonight and continuing through at
least Thu night. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will
dominate the basin through the forecast period, with the
exception of moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the Atlantic from 31N58W to
22N67W to the NE Cuban coast near 21N76W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 100 nm along the
front. Strong southerly winds are ahead of front N of 28N with
fresh southerly winds N of 22N. A surface trough in the central
Atlantic is analyzed from 23N44W to 18N46W. Another surface
trough well to the east of the Lesser Antilles is analyzed from
15N50W to 13N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between
these troughs from 11N to 20N between 44N to 54W. A 1014 mb low
is analyzed near 21N27W with no significant convection. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the central Atlantic. Seas up to
7 ft are noted in the central Atlantic with seas 10 to 18 ft in
the western Atlantic.

Swell generated by extremely large Teddy combined with a
stationary front over the SE waters will continue to impact the
forecast area through at least Thu night. In the wake of the
front, high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic U.S. will
bring fresh to strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the
Florida coast into tonight.

$$
AReinhart
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