[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Beta is centered near 28.9N 96.7W at 22/01500
UTC or 13 nm ENE of Victoria Texas moving NE at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection
extends out 150 nm from the center in the NE semicircle. A slow
motion toward the east-northeast is expected by this afternoon
and tonight. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with
increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over
southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and
Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Little change in
strength is expected today with gradual weakening anticipated
through Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 39.6N 63.7W at 22/1500 UTC or
300 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate convection
extends outward 360 nm from the center in the northern
semicircle...and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on
Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night
and east of Labrador on Thursday. Although some weakening is
likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong
post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 35.0N 22.3W at 22/1500
UTC or 291 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within about 60 nm of the center in all quadrants.
An east to east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday.
A slowing of forward motion along with turns to the southeast
then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A
southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low within the next day or so. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located along 21W S of 16N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between
20W-24W.

A weak tropical wave extends along 33W S of 20N, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 06N27W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for further details
on Tropical Depression Beta inland over Texas.

As of 22/1500 UTC. A cold front has now stalled over the eastern
and central Gulf from 22N80W to 30N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front. North of the front over
the NE Gulf, strong NE winds prevail. These winds will gradually
decrease to fresh later today and tonight. Gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In
the far western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N.
Impacts from Beta will remain confined to nearshore coastal
waters of Texas and Louisiana. A stationary front extending from
the north-central Gulf to western Cuba will move back northward
on Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure may form along this
frontal boundary in the southeast Gulf later this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is Cuba due to the stationary
front.
Mainly fair weather conditions prevail elsewhere across the
basin
under the influence of mid level high supporting dry air
subsidence. Scattered moderate convection S of 11N, along the
Panama and Colombia coasts, is associated with the east Pacific
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Swell associated with Teddy moving away in the north Atlantic as
well as generated by a cold front currently extending along
22N-23N W of 61W will impact much of the Atlantic passages
beginning tonight and continuing through at least Thu night.
Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin
through the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to
fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24N64W to 22N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Strong NE winds
area located to the N and W of the front, including the Bahamas.
Ahead of the front, strong S winds are occurring N of 28N. A
weak 1011 mb low near 14N51W is along a NE-SW surface trough
that
extends from 17N47W to 12N53W. Another surface trough is from
23N42W to 18N45W. A broad area of moderate, disorganized
convection resides in the vicinity of these features from
11N-17N
between 42W-48W.

Swell generated by Teddy and a cold front that is slowing over
the southeastern waters will continue to impact the waters
through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high
pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic U.S. will bring fresh to
strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast
into tonight.

$$
Formosa
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