[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 221449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette
dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of
low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30
degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep
convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears
to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT
overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial
advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong
vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected
to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to
become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not
return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a
remnant low by as early as this evening.

Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains
embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The
trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a
ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This
evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and
make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By
late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving
west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of
the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough
and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but
is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 35.0N  22.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 35.2N  20.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 35.6N  18.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 35.9N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 35.6N  15.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z 34.9N  15.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 33.9N  18.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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