[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 220900
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

The tops of Paulette's convective clouds have been warming since
the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left.  The
estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT
pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded
convective structure.  New scatterometer passes this morning should
give us a better idea of how the winds have changed.  Moderate to
strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are
expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and
Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours.  If
convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a
post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours.  The
remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5.

Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt.  This
motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours.  After that
time, there is significant model divergence, with several models
(such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while
others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it
westward.  The latter solution appears more realistic since a
shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by
ridging to the north.  The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous
interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 34.7N  23.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 35.1N  21.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 35.4N  19.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 35.8N  17.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 35.6N  16.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  24/1800Z 34.9N  16.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 34.3N  17.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 33.3N  21.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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