[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is centered near 22.9N 94.1W at
18/0900 UTC or 210 nm ENE of Tampico Mexico moving NNE at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is located within 270 nm of the center in the
northern semicircle. Swells are expected to increase and reach
the coast of Texas, and the Gulf coast of Mexico, during the
weekend. The swells will be generated by a combination of the
tropical depression, and a cold front that is in the NE part of
the Gulf of Mexico. It is likely for these swells to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

Category 4 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 21.6N 55.4W at
18/0900 UTC or 480 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving
NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous
strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the SW
semicircle and within 60 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is located within 480 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle. Anyone who is in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of Hurricane Teddy. Large swells that are
being generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the
northeastern coast of South America. These swells spread westward
to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern
coast of the United States of America by the weekend. It is likely
for the swells to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

A tropical wave is along 29W, from 20N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the
tropical wave near 11N. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 240 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, and from 10N southward between 10W and
50W. Earlier scatterometer data suggests near gale force winds are
occurring on the east side of this low, which does not have a well
defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the couple of days. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form by the end of this
weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward 10 to
15 mph during the next several days. The chance for formation into
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please,
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is along 18N/19N between the coast of Africa
and 20N. No significant deep convective precipitation
accompanies this feature. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have
been disrupted by the activity of the current tropical cyclones.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two located in the western Gulf.

A nearly stationary cold front extends from NE Florida into the
central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 60 nm to the SE
of the cold front between 88W and 91W.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two near 22.9N 94.1W 1005
mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near
23.7N 93.7W this afternoon then move to 24.9N 93.2W Sat morning.
Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 25.7N 93.2W Sat afternoon,
25.9N 93.8W Sun morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near
26.0N 94.6W Sun afternoon. Hurricane Twenty-Two will be near
26.3N 95.6W Mon morning, then weaken to a tropical storm off the
Texas coast early Tue. A cold front will move through the
northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing fresh NE winds into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclone circulation center is in central sections
of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N
northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond northern sections of Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is within 100 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 75W and 77W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 70W westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery within 400 nm to 700 nm to the west of
Hurricane Teddy. Some of this drier air borders the NE Caribbean
Sea and its islands. A second area of comparatively drier air is
in the Caribbean Sea, within 500 nm to the SE of Hispaniola, and
then curving toward the southern half of the eastern Caribbean
Sea islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 18N
between 64W and 68W, between the two areas of comparatively
drier air in subsidence.

Major Hurricane Teddy will move northward away from
tropical Atlantic waters for the rest of the week. Long- period
northeasterly swell generated by Teddy are expected to impact
most of the central Atlantic through the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane
Teddy, moving into the Central Atlantic, and low pressure to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

The remnant center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky, is near 21N
39W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N to
30N between 24W and 42W.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 140 nm to 200 nm to the E and the ESE of the frontal
boundary, that passes through South Carolina and SE Georgia to
NE Florida.

A nearly stalled cold front is along 32N/35N between 39W and 64W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 30N northward between 30W and 70W, and from the Bahamas and
20N northward between 70W and 77W.

Category 4 Hurricane Teddy near 21.6N 55.4W 947 mb at
5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts
140 kt. Teddy will move to 22.8N 56.5W this afternoon, 24.7N
58.1W Sat morning, 26.6N 59.9W Sat afternoon, 28.2N 61.6W Sun
morning, 29.8N 62.7W Sun afternoon, and 32.2N 62.8W Mon morning.
Teddy could remain a Major Hurricane as it moves north and east of
Bermuda Mon night and Tue. Swell generated by Teddy will impact
the Bahamas this weekend. A strong cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Fri night, then gradually weaken and
become stationary from near Bermuda into southern Florida early
next week. Near gale force northeast winds are expected north of
the Bahamas this weekend into early next week, along with building
seas.

$$
KONARIK
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