[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two, at 18/0300 UTC, is
near 22.0N 94.2W. T.D. Twenty-Two is about 205 nm/380 km to the
E of Tampico in Mexico, and about 285 nm/530 km to the SE of the
mouth of the Rio Grande. The tropical depression is moving
toward the NE, or 035 degrees, 03 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered
strong is within 250 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Swells
are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas, and the
Gulf coast of Mexico, during the weekend. The swells will be
generated by a combination of the tropical depression, and a
cold front that is in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is
likely for these swells to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

The center of Major Hurricane Teddy, at 18/0300 UTC, is near
20.9N 54.7W. TEDDY is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. The maximum
sustained
wind speeds are 120 knots with gusts to 145 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 140 nm of
the center in the SW semicircle, and within 45 nm of the center
in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated to widely scattered strong are within 500 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from the hurricane southward in the Atlantic Ocean
between 50W and 60W. Anyone who is in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Hurricane Teddy. Large swells that are being
generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the
northeastern coast of South America. These swells spread
westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
eastern coast of the United States of America by the weekend. It
is likely for the swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

The remnant center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky, at 18/0000
UTC, is near 21N 39W. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N
to 30N between 24W and 42W.

A tropical wave is along 29W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 12N. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 240 nm of the center in the W quadrant.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant, and from 10N southward between
10W and 50W. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form, before upper level
winds become
less favorable, by late this weekend. The system is forecast to
move west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph during the next several
days. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is along 18N/19N between the coast of Africa
and 20N. No significant deep convective precipitation
accompanies this feature. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have
been disrupted by the activity of the current tropical cyclones.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.  Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is
within 250 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Swells are
expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas, and the Gulf
coast of Mexico, during the weekend. The swells will be
generated by a combination of the tropical depression, and a
cold front that is in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is
likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.

A stationary front passes through NE Florida, and into the
central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 60 nm to the SE
of the cold front between 88W and 91W.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two near 22.0N 94.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM
EDT moving NE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near
22.9N 93.8W Fri morning and move to 23.9N 93.3W Fri evening.
Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 24.8N 92.9W Sat morning,
25.4N 93.2W Sat evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25.6N
94.0W Sun morning. Hurricane Twenty-Two will reach 25.7N 94.8W
Sun evening, then weaken to a tropical storm over 26.1N 95.9W
late Mon. A weak cold front, that currently is in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, will move eastward a bit more, and become
stationary by the weekend. A tightening surface pressure
gradient is expected to lead to fresh to strong northeast to
east winds, and building seas, in most of the central and
western sections of the Gulf of Mexico into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclone circulation center is in central sections
of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N
northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond northern sections of Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is within 100 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 75W and 77W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 70W westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery within 400 nm to 700 nm to the west of
Hurricane Teddy. Some of this drier air borders the NE Caribbean
Sea and its islands. A second area of comparatively drier air is
in the Caribbean Sea, within 500 nm to the SE of Hispaniola, and
then curving toward the southern half of the eastern Caribbean
Sea islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 18N
between 64W and 68W, between the two areas of comparatively
drier air in subsidence.

Major Hurricane Teddy will move northward away from the tropical
Atlantic Ocean for the rest of the week. Long-period
northeasterly swells generated by Teddy are expected to impact
most
of the central Atlantic Ocean through the next few days. A
relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds through early next week. Fresh trade winds
will be pulsing in the south central Caribbean Sea through at
least Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swells that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America.
These swells spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern coast of the United States of
America by the weekend. It is likely for the swells to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from
your local weather office.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 140 nm to 200 nm to the E and the ESE of the frontal
boundary, that passes through South Carolina and SE Georgia to
NE Florida.

A stationary front is along 32N/35N between 39W and 64W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 30N northward between 30W and 70W, and from the Bahamas and
20N northward between 70W and 77W.

Major Hurricane Teddy is near 20.9N 54.7W 945 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt.
Teddy will move to 22.1N 55.7W Fri morning, 23.8N 57.1W
Fri evening, 25.6N 58.8W Sat morning, 27.4N 60.8W Sat evening,
29.0N 62.6W Sun morning, and 30.7N 63.5W Sun evening. Teddy will
change little in intensity, as it moves to the east of Bermuda
late on Monday. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas
this weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern coast
of the U.S.A. on Friday night, and then become nearly stationary
on Sunday and into early next week. Strong northeast winds and
building seas are expected to the north of the front.

$$
mt
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