[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Sep 15 00:25:57 CDT 2020

AXNT20 KNHC 150525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sally is centered near 28.9N 87.6W at 15/0300 UTC or
80 nm E of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving WNW at 3
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are
currently to 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 27N-32N between 86W-90W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 25N-32N between
82W-86W. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the
north-central Gulf coast. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday
afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion
is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of
southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in
the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 35.7N 62.3W at 15/0300 UTC
or 240 nm NNE of Bermuda moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are currently well N of 32N.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within
90 nm in the NE semicircle and within 60 nm in the SW semicircle
of Paulette. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere
within 300 nm in the NE semicircle and within 120 nm in the SW
semicircle. Strengthening is possible Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and will
likely continue through the rest of the week. A faster motion
toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next
couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn
eastward by late Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 13.2N 45.0W at 15/0300 UTC
or 960 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving W at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently to 15
ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N-
16N between 38W-50W. Strengthening is forecast for the next several
days. Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday and could
reach major hurricane strength on Thursday. A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected overnight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 19.5N 29.9W at 15/0300 UTC
or 400 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Vicky continues to be a
sheared tropical storm with scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection noted from 19N-23N between 22W-29W. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by
a turn toward the west. Weakening is forecast due to strong
upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to
degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is offshore of the W coast of Africa with
axis along 19W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
convection is noted from 06N-14N between 14N-25N. This area has a
low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania
near 20N16W to 18N23W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
from northern Colombia near 10N76W then across Panama and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean
S of 13N and W of 78W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Sally.

Elsewhere, a 1010 mb surface low is centered in the west-central
Gulf near 23N95W along a surface trough that extends from 26N94W
to 21N95W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough and in the
vicinity of the low. This area has a low chance of developing
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted west of the
trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere outside of Sally.

Hurricane Sally will continue moving northwest while moving
onshore over the east-central Gulf. The system will then move
northwest while weakening through the end of the week. Elsewhere,
the weak low pressure over the southwest Gulf will persist through
Thu. Looking ahead, a weak front will move into the northern Gulf
by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Teddy which is forecast to move within 240 nm NE of the
Leeward Islands by Fri.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low centered well north of Hispaniola
is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island
and adjacent waters north of 17N between 68W-75W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin, with moderate to fresh winds noted within 90 nm north of
the Colombian/Venezuelan coastline. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft W of
74W, and 3-5 ft E of 74W.

A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades through late week, with fresh trades pulsing over
the south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Paulette, centered N of 32N, Tropical Storm Teddy, and Tropical
Storm Vicky.

Swells generated by Paulette are affecting the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low is centered near 27N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across Hispaniola and
the west Atlantic between 65W-71W. To the east, the remnants of
T.D. Rene are analyzed as a 1012 mb low centered near 26N50W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm to the NE of the low
center. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin
outside of the tropical systems.

T.S. Teddy is expected strengthen to a hurricane before reaches
the waters well northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Fri, then
continue to the NNE east of 65W through late Sat. T.S. Vicky will
continue moving west while weakening. A front may approach the
waters off northeast Florida by late Sat.

$$
ERA
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