[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sally is centered near 28.8N 87.4W at 14/2100 UTC or
90 nm E of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving WNW at 5
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are
currently to 23 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted within 270 nm in the NE semicircle and within 90 nm in the
SW semicircle of Sally. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere within 360 nm in the NE semicircle
and within 150 nm in the SW semicircle of Sally, as well as
within 180 nm SE of a line from 26N86W to 22N87W. Sally is moving
toward the west- northwest and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Tue,
and a slow north- northeastward to northeastward motion is
expected Tue night through Wed night. On the forecast track, the
center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern
Louisiana tonight and Tue, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area on late Tue or Wed. Additional strengthening is
forecast tonight and early Tue and Sally is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central
Gulf coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 34.5N 63.8W at 14/2100 UTC
or 140 nm NNE of Bermuda moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are currently well N of 32N.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
within 90 nm in the NE semicircle and within 60 nm in the SW
semicircle of Paulette. Scattered moderate convection is noted
elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE semicircle and within 120 nm in
the SW semicircle. Paulette is moving toward the north-
northeast and a turn toward the northeast is expected later
tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an
increase in forward speed Tue afternoon through Thu. Additional
strengthening is likely through Tue night as Paulette accelerates
northeastward to east- northeastward. Gradual weakening is
forecast to begin on Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 13.0N 44.0W at 14/2100 UTC
or 1020 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving W at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently to 14
ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
within 120 nm in the SW semicircle and within 30 nm in the NE
semicircle of Teddy. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere within 180-360 nm of the center.
Teddy is moving toward the west and a west- northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight through Tue night,
followed by a northwestward motion Wed and Thu. Steady
strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy is
expected to become a hurricane Tue and could reach major
hurricane strength on Thu.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 19.3N 29.5W at 14/2100 UTC
or 370 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Vicky is a sheared
tropical storm with scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection noted between 60-240 nm of the center with similar
convection extending well NE of there not directly associated
with Vicky. A continued northwestward motion is expected through
early Tue, followed by a gradual turn toward the west by Wed.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become
a remnant low during the next day or two. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

Remnants of Rene are centered near 26.9N 49.3W at 14/2100 UTC or
910 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas are currently less than 8 ft.
No significant convection is noted with the remnants. The
remnants are moving toward the west- southwest and this general
motion will likely continue for another day or two. Winds
associated with the remnants of Rene should gradually diminish
during the next day or so.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is offshore of the W coast of Africa with
axis along 19W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-14N between 16N-
24N. This area has a low chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W to 18N23W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N52W to
10N60W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from
northern Colombia near 11N73W to near the Costa Rica/Panama
border near 11N84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean Sea S of 14N and W of
77W. No significant convection is noted in the Atlantic.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Sally.

Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low pressure is in the west-central Gulf
near 24N95W along a surface trough which extends from the coast
near the border of Texas/Mexico to 20N93W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 24N-29N between 93W-
98W. This area has a low chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds
are noted west of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere outside of Sally. Looking ahead, a weak front will
move into the northern Gulf by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Teddy which is forecast to move within 240 nm NE of the
Leeward Islands by Fri.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low centered well north-northeast of
Hispaniola is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola and adjacent waters including from 15N-17N between
71W-74W. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft W of 74W, and 3-5
ft E of 74W.

A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades through late week, with fresh trades pulsing over
the south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Paulette, centered N of 32N, Tropical Storm Teddy, Tropical
Storm Vicky, and the Remnants of Rene.

Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low is centered near 25N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are across Hispaniola, as well
as across portions of central Puerto Rico northward just
offshore. A 1020 mb high is near 28N35W, with a cold front N of
the high from 32N40W and beyond. Outside of the tropical
cyclones, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

A front may approach the waters off northeast Florida by late
Sat bring increasing winds and seas behind it.

$$
Lewitsky
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