[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HURRICANE SALLY...

Sally has strengthened to a hurricane. Hurricane Sally is
centered near 28.7 87.1W at 14/1800 UTC, or 140 nm SE of Biloxi,
Mississippi moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with
gusts to 100 kt. Doppler radar and satellite imagery indicate
that numerous strong convection exists within 180 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quad, 105 nm SW quad and
120 nm NW quad. The center of Sally is expected to approach
southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the
hurricane warning area Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward,
Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the
northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Additional strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so. Life-threatening flash
flooding is expected along portions of the Gulf Coast from the
western Florida panhandle to far southeastern Louisiana. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 33.9N 64.4W at 14/1800 UTC
or 100 nm N of Bermuda moving NNE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm of the center in the NW quad and within 150 nm
in the other three quadrants. Isolated strong convection is
also seen within 105 nm of the center in the SW semicircle.
On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will continue
moving farther away from Bermuda this afternoon. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn
toward  the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed
Tuesday night. Additional strengthening is likely through
Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-
northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on
Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL STORM TEDDY...

Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 12.8N 42.8W at 14/1500 UTC
or 1085 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving W at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted within 30 nm of the center
in the NE quadrant, 60 nm SE quad, 180 nm SW quad and 60 nm NW
quad. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 360 nm
NE quad, 270 nm SE quad, 360 nm SW quad and 180 nm NW quad. A
slightly slower WNW motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. A
turn toward the NW and a further decrease in forward speed is
forecast by Wednesday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.5N 48.3W at 14/1500
UTC or 975 nm NE of the Leeward Islands. Rene is currently
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection extends out 180 nm
in the eastern semicircle. A motion toward the west-southwest or
southwest is forecast to begin later today. Rene is expected to
become a remnant low tonight, and dissipate by late Wednesday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL STORM VICKY...

Tropical Depression Twenty-One has strengthened into Tropical
Storm Vicky. Vicky is centered near 18.7N 28.5W at 14/1500 UTC or
305 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and 180 nm SE
quad. A west-northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Little change in strength is expected during the next
day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night and
Vicky is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19/20W from
01N-17N moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from
06N-14N. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 18N22W. No convection is seen near the monsoon trough at
this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Sally is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
and is producing seas as high as 19 ft near its center. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details on
Sally.

Elsewhere, a sharp surface trough is located over the
west-central
Gulf of Mexico, with a weak area of low pressure along the trough
near 23N94.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
22N-28N between 94.5W-98W. This system has a low chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Outside of Sally, moderate winds prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough is
producing scattered moderate to strong convection over the SW
Caribbean south of 14N and west of 79W. An upper-level low
centered north of the basin near 23N69W is inducing scattered
showers and isolated tstorms over Hispaniola and adjacent
waters. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades across
the basin.

For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure pattern will
maintain gentle to moderate trades through late week, with fresh
trades pulsing over the south central Caribbean. Tropical
Storm Teddy is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane
Fri morning near 21N54.5W, but it will pass well to the NE
of the Caribbean basin, reaching near 24N57W early Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details
on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm
Teddy, and Tropical Storm Vicky.

Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the east coast of the United States. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low is centered near 23N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms extend from Hispaniola northward
to 25N between 66W-74W. A pair of 1022 mb surface highs are near
29N36W and 30N22W, respectively. Outside of the tropical
cyclones, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Hurricane Paulette has moved north of the TAFB area. However,
strong winds in the southern semicircle of Paulette are still
affecting waters north of 29N between 61W-67W. Tropical Storm
Teddy will strengthen to a hurricane near 15N48W Tue evening,
then move to near 18N52W Thu morning and 24N57W Sat morning.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net