[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 28.3N 87.3W at 14/0900 UTC
or 150 nm SE of Biloxi, Mississippi moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is N of 27N E of 88W. Scattered moderate
convection in bands is elsewhere N of 23N E of 89W. The center
of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today,
and approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward,
Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the
northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Strengthening is expected
over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a
hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible
before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 32.3N 64.7W at 14/0900 UTC
or 0 nm E of Bermuda moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80
kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate convection is noted N
of 29N between 61W and 67W. The eye of Paulette will continue to
pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours, followed by
passage of the southern portion of the eyewall. Additional
strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and
moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.4N 48.3W at 14/0900
UTC or 970 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving W at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate
convection is from 26N to 29N between 44W and 49W. A faster
motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to
begin later today and continue through dissipation. Weakening is
forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on later
today, and dissipate by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...T.S. TEDDY...

Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 13.4N 40.4W at 14/0900 UTC
or 960 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 40W-45W.
Scattered moderate convection in bands is elsewhere from 07N-15N
between 35W-48W. A continued west-northwestward motion is
expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the
northwest by mid-week. Additional strengthening is anticipated,
and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. TWENTY-ONE...

Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 18.5N 28.3W at
14/0900 UTC or 290 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving N at
5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 13N to 24N between 21W and 32W. Some
slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the
depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that
time. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not
sooner, and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to the 1009 mb low near 18N28W to 14N34W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the Special Features section,
scattered showers are noted along the remainder of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is
currently producing seas to near 17 ft near its center. Sally is
expected to strengthens to a hurricane over the north central
Gulf today. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 23N90W to 22N94W.
Scattered showers are noted west of 94W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is also noted in the SW Gulf from 23N-
27N between 94W to the southeast coast of Texas and Mexico.
Outside of Sally, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Outside of Tropical Storm Sally, the surface trough and low over
the western Gulf of Mexico will move south and southwest through
the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is producing
scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean south of
14N. This activity is enhanced by an upper-level low over the SW
Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over
the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate
southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin through
Tue. Large swell associated with Twenty is forecast to affect
the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details
on Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm
Teddy, and Tropical Depression Twenty-One west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Elsewhere, scattered showers are currently noted within 120 nm
of the east coast of Florida. This activity is associated with
the outermost rains of Tropical Storm Sally, which is located
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the tropical
systems, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Hurricane Paulette will move N of the area Mon morning. Tropical
Storm Teddy will move to 13.8N 42.4W this afternoon, 14.3N 44.8W
Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 46.7W Tue
afternoon, 15.9N 48.2W Wed morning, 16.9N 49.5W Wed afternoon,
and 18.3N 50.8W Thu morning. Teddy will change little in
intensity as it moves near 21.0N 53.1W early Fri.

Tropical Depression Twenty-One will strengthen to a tropical
storm near 19.6N 28.6W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical
depression near 20.5N 29.6W Tue morning, move to 21.3N 30.9W Tue
afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.9N 32.8W Wed
morning, 22.4N 34.8W Wed afternoon, and 22.8N 36.9W Thu morning.
Twenty-One will change little in intensity as it moves near
23.4N 41.0W early Fri.

$$
Torres/Ramos
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