[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 28.2N 86.2W at 14/0300 UTC
or 122 nm SSW of Panama City Florida moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 26N-30N between 82W-88W. A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night,
followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to
the northwest Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico on Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast within
the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Sally is expected
to move slowly northward near the northern Gulf Coast through
Wednesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 31.4N 64.0W at 14/0300 UTC
or 70 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 28N-34N between 61W-66W. Paulette is
forecast to continue moving northwestward overnight and then turn
northward on Monday while strengthening. A faster motion toward
the northeast is expected late Monday through Wednesday. On the
forecast track the eye of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda
early Monday morning. Additional strengthening is likely when
Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late
Monday through Tuesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.2N 47.9W at 14/0300
UTC or 980 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving W at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm eastern semicircle. Rene
is forecast to continue weakening and become a remnant low on
Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. TWENTY...

Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.7N 37.6W at
14/0300 UTC or 890 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N-15N between 39W-46W. A
motion to the west-northwest is expected to continue through
mid-week. Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast
to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE...

A 1009 mb low is located near 17N29W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 13N-17N between 24W-32W. Satellite-derived
wind data continues to indicate that the circulation
associated with this area of low pressure remains elongated.
However, environmental conditions are conducive for a
short-lived tropical depression to form over the next day or so
while the low moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. This
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to the 1009 mb low near 17N29W to 15N34W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the Special Features section,
scattered showers are noted along the remainder of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is
currently producing seas to near 17 ft near its center. Sally is
expected to strengthens to a hurricane over the north central
Gulf of Mexico today. Please see the Special Features section
above for more details.

Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low near 24N94W is along a surface trough
that extends from 24N96W to 25N93W. Scattered showers are noted
west of 92W. Outside of Sally, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Outside of Tropical Storm Sally, the surface trough and low over
the western Gulf of Mexico will move south and southwest through
the middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is producing
scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean south of
14N. This activity is enhanced by an upper-level low over the SW
Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over
the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate
southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin
through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression
Twenty, and low pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Elsewhere, scattered gusty showers are currently noted
within 120 nm of the east coast of Florida. This activity is
associated with the outermost rains of Tropical Storm Sally,
which is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Outside of the tropical systems, gentle to moderate winds
prevail.

Hurricane Paulette will move N of the area Mon morning.
Tropical Depression Twenty will strengthen to a tropical
storm near 13.5N 41.2W Mon morning, move to 13.9N 43.7W
Mon evening, 14.4N 45.9W Tue morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 15.0N 47.3W Tue evening, 16.0N 48.7W Wed
morning, and 17.2N 50.0W Wed evening. Twenty will change
little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N 52.4W late Thu.
Large swell associated with this system is forecast to affect
the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the
middle of the week.

$$

ERA
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