[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 27.8N 85.9W at 13/2100 UTC
or 140 nm S of Panama City Florida moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted within 120 nm NE quadrant and 210 nm SE
quad. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere
E of 87W. Sally will move west northwestward over the north-
central Gulf of Mexico tonight, with a slower northwestward
motion on Monday when the storm is near the north-central Gulf
coast. Further strengthening is expected, and Sally is forecast
to become a hurricane on Monday. Sally is expected to be a slow
moving system resulting in significant flash flooding due to very
heavy rainfall for the central Gulf Coast Monday through the
middle of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 30.6N 63.1W at 13/2100 UTC
or 130 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 28N
to 33N between 60W and 66W. Paulette will move near Bermuda
tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds and heavy
rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 27.3N 47.6W at 13/2100
UTC or 990 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving NNW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate to
strong convection is noted within 90 nm eastern semicircle. Rene
is forecast to continue weakening and become a remnant low on
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. TWENTY...

Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.7N 37.6W at
13/2100 UTC or 820 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm S and 30 nm N
semicircles. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 33W and 40W. A motion to the
west or west-northwest is expected to continue through Tuesday,
followed by a turn to the northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a
hurricane on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE...

A 1009 mb low is located near 17.5N28W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N- 20N between 22W-32W. Satellite-derived
wind data from this morning indicated that the circulation
associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remains
elongated. However, environmental conditions are conducive for a
short-lived tropical depression to form over the next day or so
while the low moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. This
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16.5N16W
to a 1009 mb low near 17.5N28W to 15N31W. It resumes from 10N40W
to 11N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the
Special Features section, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N-12N between 40W- 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Sally, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is
currently producing seas to near 20 ft near its center. Peak
seas associated with Sally are forecast to increase to over 25 ft
Monday as it strengthens to a hurricane over the north central
Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details on Tropical Storm Sally.

Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low near 24N93W is along a surface trough
that extends from 26N96W to 24N90W. Scattered showers and
tstorms cover much of the western Gulf of Mexico west of 92W.
Outside of Sally, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Outside of Tropical Storm Sally, a surface trough over the
western Gulf of Mexico will move south and southwest through the
middle of next week with low chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is producing scattered strong convection over
the SW Caribbean south of 14N. This convection is being enhanced
by an upper-level low over the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the basin.

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue. Surface ridging will establish over
the SW Atlantic waters by mid-week, resulting in moderate to
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate
southeast winds are expected to continue in the NW basin
through Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the
Caribbean Sea during the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression
Twenty, and low pres west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Elsewhere, scattered gusty showers and tstorms are currently
seen within 60 nm of the east coasts of Florida and Georgia. This
activity is associated with the outermost rains of Tropical
Storm Sally, which is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Outside of the tropical systems, gentle to moderate winds
prevail.

Hurricane Paulette will move N of the area Mon morning.
Tropical Depression Twenty will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 13.2N 39.5W Mon morning, and reach hurricane intensity
hurricane near 14.7N 46.3W Tue afternoon. The system will
maintain hurricane strength as it moves near the offshore
Atlantic waters well east of the Leeward Islands Thu afternoon.
Large swell associated with this system is forecast to affect
the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the
middle of the week.

$$
AL
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