[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 27.0N 84.0W at 13/0900 UTC
or 105 nm W of Port Charlotte Florida moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 23N- 28N between 80W-
85W. The center of Sally will move over the southeastern and
eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf
Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday.
Further strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 29.4N 60.8W at 13/0900 UTC or
270 nm SE of Bermuda moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 28N-31N between 58W-64W. The center of
Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.
Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday
through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 26.2N 47.1W at 13/0900
UTC or 1010 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
showers amd tstms are noted from 24N-28N between 44W-49W. On
Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward.
Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and is forecast
to become a remnant low on Monday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...T.D. TWENTY...

Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 12.2N 35.5W at
13/0900 UTC or 1515 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N-15N between 32W-46W.
Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and
the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and
it could become a hurricane in a few days. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo
Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave with axis along
26W, south of 21N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N-19N between 21W-32W. Environmental conditions
support some additional development, and a tropical depression
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the next
two or three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
By mid-week, upper-level winds should become less conducive for
development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the Bay of Campeche and the EPAC
waters. The wave's axis extends along 90W and south of 19N,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 20N-18N between 90W-95W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 12N31W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either
sides of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Sally.

A surface trough extends from 26N94W to 22N92W with scattered
showers in the vicinity. Scatterometer data showed moderate to
fresh winds north of 26N and west of 93W, while light to gentle
winds prevail south of 26N between 86W-93W. Seas are 4-6 ft in
this region based on recent buoy observations.

Sally will move to 27.7N 85.4W this afternoon, 28.3N 87.2W
Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.7N 88.7W Mon
afternoon, 29.2N 89.7W Tue morning, 30.1N 90.0W Tue afternoon, and
weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 90.0W Wed morning. Sally
will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 32.8N
88.6W early Thu. Otherwise, the surface trough over the western
Gulf of Mexico will prevail through the middle of next week with
low chance of tropical cyclone formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through late Tue as Hurricane Paulette continue to move
northwest and then northeast over the north- central Atlantic
waters. Surface ridging will establish over the SW Atlantic waters
afterwards, resulting in moderate to fresh trades in the central
and eastern Caribbean. Moderate southeast winds are expected to
continue in the NW basin through Tue. Otherwise, large swell
associated with current Tropical Depression Twenty is forecast to
affect the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by
the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Depression
Twenty, and the active tropical wave moving across the basin.

Outside of the tropical systems named above, light to gentle
winds prevail across the Atlantic waters S of 20N and W of 35W.
Seas in this area are generally 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, swell associated
with Paulette has spread across much of the region W of 50W, with
seas 8 ft or greater in the offshore waters as far as 70W.

Paulette will move to 30.2N 62.5W this afternoon, 31.8N 64.4W Mon
morning, 34.0N 65.0W Mon afternoon, 35.9N 62.4W Tue morning,
37.8N 57.9W Tue afternoon, and 39.3N 54.0W Wed morning. Paulette
will change little in intensity as it moves near 42.0N 46.0W early
Thu. Large swell associated with Paulette will spread westward
across the offshore waters and continue to build seas today into
early next week.

$$
Torres/Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net