[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...T.S. SALLY...

Tropical Storm Sally is centered near 26.3N 82.9W at 13/0300 UTC
or 60 nm SW of Port Charlotte Florida moving WNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 22N-28N between 79W-84W. A northwestward
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and
approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch
area late Monday and Tuesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...HURRICANE PAULETTE...

The now Hurricane Paulette is centered near 28.9N 59.7W at
13/0300 UTC or 335 nm SE of Bermuda moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are
within 240 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 180 nm SW
quadrant, and 210 nm NW quadrant with peak seas to 31 ft.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 27N-
31N between 58W-64W. A west-northwest or northwest motion is
expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda
Monday morning. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette
is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches
Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening
is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. RENE...

Tropical Depression Rene is centered near 25.3N 46.4W at 13/0300
UTC or 1020 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 24N-26N between 45W-48W. A slower
northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night.  On Monday,
the system is expected to weaken to a remnant low as it
moves west-southwestward.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...T.D. TWENTY...

Tropical Depression Twenty is centered near 11.9N 34.6W at
13/0300 UTC or 1560 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving
WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-14N between
32W-41W. The system is forecast to continue moving WNW and
become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and a hurricane
within the next few days.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo
Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave with axis along
25W from 07N-21N. Scattered showers are noted from 14N-18N
between 24W-30W. Environmental conditions support some additional
development, and a tropical depression could form over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic during the next two or three days while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, upper-
level winds should become less conducive for development. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and the
EPAC waters. The wave's axis extends along 90W and south of 20N,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 14N-20N between 87W-93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 13N32W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either
sides of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Sally.

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is analyzed
across the north central gulf waters from 30N94W to 28N95W. To
the south, a surface trough extends from 27N91W to 24N92W. Earlier
scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh winds north of 26N
and west of 93W, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 26N
between 86W-93W. Seas are 4-6 ft in this region based on recent
buoy observations.

Tropical Storm Sally will move to 27.0N 84.4W Sun morning, to
27.7N 86.0W Sun evening, 28.3N 87.5W Mon morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 28.8N 88.6W Mon evening, 29.4N 89.2W Tue
morning, and 30.1N 89.5W Tue evening. Sally will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland over near 31.7N 89.1W late Wed.
The surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will prevail
through the middle of next week with low chance of tropical
cyclone formation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient over the basin is supporting light to
gentle winds across the region, with some moderate trades noted
near the northern coast of Colombia. Swell from distant Tropical
Storm Paulette continues impacting the Atlantic and Caribbean
passages. Seas ranging between 2-4 ft are noted in the
south-central waters, while seas of 3 ft or less prevail
elsewhere.

Moderate trade winds will prevail in the central and
eastern Caribbean through late Tue as Hurricane Paulette continue
to move northwest and then northeast over the north-central
Atlantic waters. Surface ridging with establish over the SW
Atlantic waters afterwards, increasing winds to moderate to
fresh. Moderate southeast winds are expected to continue in the
NW basin through Tue. Otherwise, large swell associated with
current Tropical Depression 20 is forecast to affect the tropical
Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, and Tropical
Depression Twenty, and the active tropical wave moving across
the basin.

Outside of the tropical systems named above, light to gentle
winds prevail across the Atlantic waters S of 20N and W of 35W.
Seas in this area are generally 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, swell
associated with Paulette has spread across much of the region W of
50W, with seas 8 ft or greater in the offshore waters as far as
70W.

Hurricane Paulette near 28.9N 59.7W 981 will move to 29.7N 61.6W
Sun morning, 31.0N 63.8W Sun evening, 32.6N 65.0W Mon morning,
34.5N 64.0W Mon evening, 36.2N 61.0W Tue morning, and 37.7N
57.5W Tue evening. Paulette will change little in intensity as it
moves near 41.0N 49.0W late Wed. Large swell associated with
Paulette will spread westward across the offshore waters and
continue to build seas this weekend into early next week. T.D.
Rene is not expected to strengthen, but could approach areas
northeast of the Leeward Islands toward the middle of next week.
Tropical Depression Twenty may approach the Tropical N Atlantic
offshore waters toward the end of next week.

$$
ERA
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