[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 110542
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure.  This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida later today and
moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico.  Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system
is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of
this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to
form within the next few days while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of
Africa this weekend.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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