[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 102330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure.  This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico.  Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has diminished since earlier today, some slow development
of this system is possible while it moves westward and then
southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next few days while the system moves generally westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of
Africa this weekend.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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