[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 11/0300 UTC, is near
22.7N 50.9W. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 305 degrees, 09 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of
the center in the N quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere within 400 nm of the
center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 11/0300 UTC, is near 19.3N
37.6W. RENE is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of
the center in the W semicircle. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Gradual development of this system is
forecast. A tropical depression is expected to form within the
next few days, while the system moves generally westward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium. Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
for the latest updates. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is from 14N to 16N between 17W and 21W, and from 09N to
14N between 23W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 04N to 17N from 30W eastward.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is between Haiti and Jamaica. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are
from Haiti westward, and inland in Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania, just to the north of the border with Senegal, and
then to 14N20W and 14N29W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the waters that
are from 05N to 15N between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 85W/86W, from NW Cuba toward the
Florida Panhandle. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented inverted
trough extends from SE Louisiana toward the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front passes through east Texas,
and it continues southward to the coast of Mexico along 20N/21N,
and then the front curves northwestward, inland in Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong covers the inland
areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, in
Guatemala, and in the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Isolated moderate is in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough that is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
drift westward through the rest of the week. Fairly tranquil
marine conditions are expected across the area through early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is between Haiti and Jamaica. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are
from Haiti westward, and inland in Honduras and Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, between 73W in Colombia and
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 70W
westward.

Tropical Storm Paulette near 22.7N 50.9W 991 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts to 65 kt.
Paulette will move to 23.4N 52.4W Fri morning, 24.6N 54.1W
Friday evening, 26.1N 55.8W Sat morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 27.6N 57.6W Sat evening, 28.9N 59.9W Sun morning,
30.0N 62.3W Sun evening, and 32.6N 65.0W Mon evening. Large
swell associated with Paulette will spread through the Atlantic
Ocean and Caribbean Sea Passages through this weekend. A
tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea will exit the basin
on Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 78W/79W, from the coast of Cuba to
31N. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the
Bahamas and Florida on Friday. It will move into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Upper level winds are
expected to become conducive for development. It is possible
that a tropical depression may form, while this system moves
slowly toward the west-northwest in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. This system is expected to produce locally
heavy rainfall in parts of South Florida and in the Florida
Keys, during the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Paulette near 22.7N 50.9W 991 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts to 65 kt.
Paulette will move to 23.4N 52.4W Fri morning, 24.6N 54.1W
Friday evening, 26.1N 55.8W Sat morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 27.6N 57.6W Sat evening, 28.9N 59.9W Sun morning,
30.0N 62.3W Sun evening, and 32.6N 65.0W Mon evening. Large
swell associated with Paulette will spread through the Atlantic
and Caribbean Passages through this weekend. Swell associated
with Paulette will spread into the waters E of the Bahamas and
continue to build through the weekend. A surface trough, that is
to the NE-E of Florida, will drift westward through the
remainder of the week.

$$
mt
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