[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2250 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 22.1N 50.1W at 10/2100
UTC or 770 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 NM in
the NE semicircle. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through the
weekend. Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or
so, but Paulette is then forecast to restrengthen by Saturday.
Paulette is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.9N 36.8W at 10/2100 UTC
or 750 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 90 NM of the center.
A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected to
continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest
on Saturday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by
Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa along 20W is
producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N
to 15N between 17W and 23W. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days.
Please see the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the
latest updates at https://hurricanes.gov .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 20W south of 19N,
moving W at 15 kt. This wave is described in the Special
Features section above.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 81W south of 18N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N15W
to 10N30W. The circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette and
Tropical Storm Rene have disrupted the typical monsoon flow and
ITCZ over the remaining eastern and central Atlantic waters.
Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends
across Central America from Costa Rica at 09N78W to a 1009 mb low
at the northern coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Significant
convection is described above in the Special Features and
Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is analyzed from the central Texas
coast near 28N96W to the east coast of Mexico near 20N97W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the front.
Elsewhere, a surface trough extends across the E Gulf from
29N86W to 23N84W, with scattered showers near the trough axis.
Gentle winds prevail across much of the basin with some moderate
to fresh N winds over the extreme W Gulf.

A surface trough across the eastern Gulf will drift W through
the remainder of the week. Some slow development of this system is
possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the
northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. The
system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
during the next two days. Elsewhere, surface ridging will extend
across the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated
with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast
to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and
moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-
level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next
week. This system has a medium chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone during the next five days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the Caribbean waters
today. Scatterometer data from earlier today showed gentle to
moderate trades prevailing across the basin. Seas remain below 8
ft across the Caribbean. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are shown in satellite imagery and lightning data offshore Cuba
and Hispaniola.

Large swells associated with Paulette will spread through the
Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages through the upcoming
weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean will
exit the basin by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave off the
west coast of Africa.

A low pressure trough is analyzed over and north of the NW
Bahamas extending from 30N77W to 24N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 22N to 28N between 73W and 77W.
Scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh winds are found
east of this trough across the northern offshore waters.
Elsewhere, a large area of strong winds is shown within 420 NM in
the N semicircle of T.S. Paulette, and a recent altimeter pass
indicates 12-ft or greater seas extend 600 NM across the large
tropical storm. Swell from Paulette is spreading across the
central Atlantic waters towards the Leeward Islands, and recent
altimeter data show 8 ft or greater seas building over the
offshore waters E of 60W. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow
persists N of 20N between 35W and 65W. Farther east, fresh to
strong NE winds are ongoing between the Canary Islands and
Western Sahara.

Swells associated with Paulette are beginning to spread into the
waters E of the Bahamas and will continue to propagate and build
through the weekend. Elsewhere, the trough east of Florida will
drift west through the remainder of the week, though no tropical
development of it is expected over the Atlantic.

$$
Landsea
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