[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 21.5N 49.1W at 10/1500
UTC or 935 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or
greater are within 330 nm NE quadrant, 120 nm SE quadrant, 210
nm SW quadrant, and 360 nm NW quadrant with peak seas near 29
ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 180 nm N semicircle. Paulette remains a sheared tropical
storm with an exposed low-level center.  A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. Some additional slight weakening
is expected during the next day or so, but then Paulette is
forecast to restrengthen by Sat.  Paulette could become a
hurricane by Sun or Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.6N 35.8W at 10/1500 UTC
or 800 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater
are within 0 nm S semicircle, 90 nm NE quadrant and 60 nm NW
quadrant with peak seas near 14 ft. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm W semicircle. A
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest.
Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of
days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Sat. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa along 18W is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N
between 16W and 22W. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days.
Please see the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the
latest updates.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 18W south of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is described in the Special
Features section above.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 80W south of
18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 11N23W. The circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette
and Tropical Storm Rene have disrupted the typical monsoon flow
over the remaining eastern and central Atlantic waters.
Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends
across Central America from near the Costa Rica/Panama border at
10N83W to the northern coast of Colombia near 11N73W.
Significant convection is described above in the Special
Features and Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from the upper Texas coast near 29N96W
to the northern coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the far western Gulf in
the vicinity of the boundary. Elsewhere, a surface trough
extends across the eastern Gulf from 29N83W to 24N88W, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the trough axis over
the NE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail across much of the basin, with
some moderate easterly winds over the SW Gulf. A recent
altimeter pass, along with buoy observations across the western
Gulf, indicate seas are generally 2-4 ft.

A surface trough across the eastern Gulf will drift W through
the remainder of the week. Surface ridging will extend across
the Gulf leading to fairly tranquil marine conditions through
the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the Caribbean waters
today. Recent scatterometer data show gentle winds prevail
across much of the basin, with moderate winds noted offshore the
northern coast of Colombia. A small area of moderate winds is
also noted south of Hispaniola. Seas of 4-6 ft are found through
the Atlantic passages in long-period, easterly swell. Elsewhere,
wave heights are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in
the western Caribbean. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are shown in satellite imagery and lightning data offshore Cuba
and Hispaniola.

Large swells associated with Paulette will spread through the
Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages through the upcoming
weekend. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean
will exit the basin by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave off the
west coast of Africa.

A low pressure trough is analyzed offshore the NW Bahamas,
extending from 30N76W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted east of the trough axis to 70W. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to perhaps locally fresh winds are found
well east of this trough across the northern offshore waters.
Elsewhere, a large area of fresh to strong winds is shown within
540 nm N semicircle of T.S. Paulette, and a recent altimeter
pass indicates 12-ft or greater seas extend well N of the storm
center. Swell from Paulette is spreading across the central
Atlantic waters towards the Leeward Islands, and recent
altimeter data show 8 ft or greater seas building over the
offshore waters E of 60W. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow
persists N of 20N between 35W and 65W. Farther east, fresh to
strong NE winds are ongoing between the Canary Islands and
Western Sahara.

Swells associated with Paulette are beginning to spread into the
waters E of the Bahamas and will continue to propagate and build
through the weekend. Elsewhere, a surface trough NE-E of Florida
will drift W through the remainder of the week.

$$
B Reinhart
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