[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
509 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 20.9N 49.0W at 10/0900
UTC or 810 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Paulette is a
sheared tropical storm with an exposed center. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted between 60 nm and 420 nm in the NE
quadrant and between 30 nm and 90 nm in the SE quadrant. Paulette is
moving toward the W-NW and this general motion is expected to
continue through Fri. A NW motion should begin Fri evening and
continue into the weekend. Some weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days. Restrengthening is expected to commence over
the weekend and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane early
Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 18.2N 34.8W at 10/0900 UTC
or 630 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the NW semicircle and
60 nm in the SE semicircle. Rene is moving toward the W-NW. This
general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the NW. Gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near
hurricane strength by Fri night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

A tropical wave is inland over western Africa along 16W moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted within 270-420 nm of the coast of Africa. Gradual
development is anticipated once the system moves over water, and a
tropical depression is expected to form late this week or over
the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. This area has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is inland over western Africa and is
described in detail in the Special Features section above.

A tropical wave axis is along 84W from the NW Caribbean Sea
southward across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and central Costa
Rica, moving W at 15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the water with scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection W of the wave axis over western Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

No monsoon trough is noted over the eastern and central Atlantic
Ocean due to the circulations of Tropical Storm Paulette and
Tropical Storm Rene. A trough extends from SW of Tropical Storm
Paulette near 14N46W to 09N57W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon
trough extends across Central America from the Costa Rica/Panama
border at 10N83W to the N coast of Colombia near 10N74W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N between 20W-
31W, from 10N-13N between 29W-35W, and within 180 nm SE of the
trough SW of Paulette. Similar convection is noted of the coast
of Guyana S of 09N and W of 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed over SE Texas to across northern Mexico.
A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay Florida SW to N of
the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N88W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted along and E-SE of the trough including
over portions of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys. Earlier
scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate E-SE across the
basin. Seas are 3 ft or less, except locally to 4 ft offshore of
Texas.

The front over SE Texas and northern Mexico will stall along the
coast or just off the coast over the inner coastal waters later
today, where it will linger through the remainder of the week
before dissipating. The surface trough across the eastern Gulf
will drift W through the week while slowly dissipating. Otherwise,
surface ridging will extend across the Gulf leading to fairly
tranquil marine conditions through the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the tropical wave in the western Caribbean, no
significant surface features are noted across the basin. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted across the basin on mainly
gentle trade winds with seas of 3 ft or less W of 72W and 2-4 ft E
of 72W. Seas of 4-6 ft are found through the Atlantic passages in
long period easterly swell.

Large swells associated with Paulette will continue to spread and
build through the Tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean Passages by
the end of the week into the weekend. The tropical wave in the
western Caribbean will exit the basin by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and a tropical wave over
Western Africa.

An area of low pressure that was centered well SE of the Carolinas
has degenerated into a surface trough per recent observations.
Some disorganized isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the
low. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are found across the waters W of 65W. Moderate SE
flow is noted across the NE half of the basin with gentle to
locally moderate E-SE flow across the SW half of the basin. Seas
of 4-7 ft in long period easterly swell are found E of the Bahamas
with seas of 3 ft or less W of the Bahamas.

Large swells associated with Paulette will continue to spread and
build into the waters E of the Bahamas through the end of the
week through the weekend. Elsewhere, the surface trough from NE of
Jacksonville to the Tampa Bay area will drift W through the
remainder of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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