[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
532 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 18.1N 42.8W at 08/0900
UTC or 1090 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE semicircle and
within 45 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 17N-23N between 38W-45W,
and also in a band between 120 nm and 240 nm in the SE semicircle.
Paulette is moving toward the NW and should continue in this
general motion with a faster forward speed later today, then move
W-NW Wed through Fri. Strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, with little change in strength expected afterward
through Thu. Some weakening is expected Thu evening and Fri.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 16.4N 24.9W at 08/0900 UTC
or 30 nm SSE of Santo Antao Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted generally from 13N-19N
between 22W-28W. Rene is moving toward the W and a motion toward
the W to WNW is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Rene will pass over the central and western
Cabo Verde Islands today, and then move away from the islands
tonight. Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today. Little change in
strength is expected today, followed by gradual strengthening
tonight into Thu, with Rene forecast to become a hurricane in a
couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends S of the eastern
Dominican Republic along 69W to across the A-B-C Islands and
across western Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers
are noted W of the wave axis, with numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection noted over land W of the wave axis across
western Venezuela and northern Colombia.

A tropical in the western Caribbean extends just S of the Cayman
Islands along 82W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-14N between 79W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W to 17N19W,
then resumes SW of Rene near 14N27W to 17N39W, then resumes SW of
Paulette near 14N45W to 11N52W. The ITCZ continues from 11N52W to
the coast of Venezuela near 10N62W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm to 240 nm SE of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 45W-53W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N-12N between 26W-32W, and from 12N-14N
between 47W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula
with high pres over the Carolinas extending across the Gulf. A
surface trough is analyzed just offshore of the Florida Gulf
coast with isolated showers in the vicinity of it. Additional
isolated showers are noted N of 25N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Gulf and Bay of
Campeche S of 20N under an area of upper level diffluence. Mainly
gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevails across the basin along with
seas of 3 ft or less.

The front will gradually dissipate through mid-week. The trough
will drift W through the week. Little change in marine conditions
is anticipated other then winds becoming NE ahead of the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere along with seas of 2-4
ft. A cluster of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted along the S coast of Haiti to 17N between 72W-74W.

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean, and are described in more
detail in the tropical waves section above. The tropical wave in
the western Caribbean will move across Central America by Wed.
The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move W across the
central Caribbean later today through Wed, then through the
western Caribbean late week. Little change in marine conditions is
anticipated through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene.

A stationary front is analyzed from northern Florida NE to
offshore of the Carolinas. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm SE of the front. A 1011 mb low pressure area is near
30N68W along a trough axis N of 25N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 25N-30.5N between 65W-
69W. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the low moves slowly W to W-NW.
Additional scattered moderate convection is noted From 22N-28N
from across the Bahamas to offshore of the E coast of Florida.
This convection is associated with a tropical upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT). The TUTT is forecast to drift W and weaken during
the next day or two. More scattered moderate convection is noted
to the E from 24N-30N between 55W-60W, associated with a mid-
level trough.

The stationary front off the NE Florida coast will dissipate
today. Low pressure near 30N68W will drift W through the week well
N-NE of the Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail
across the basin through the week. Large swells associated with
Paulette may spread into the waters E of the Bahamas by the end of
the week into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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