[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 17.8N 42.5W at 08/0300
UTC or 1350 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 3
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-20N between
37W-44W. Strong winds are noted south of 21N and between 38W-41W
in the northern semicircle. A slow motion toward the northwest
or north-northwest is expected tonight. Paulette is then forecast
to move a little faster and generally westward on Tue and Wed.
Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered near 16.2N 23.5W at 08/0300 UTC
or 45 nm W of BOA Vista Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is about 180 nm western semicircle. On
the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass over the
central Cabo Verde Islands this morning and over the western Cabo
Verde Islands this afternoon. Gradual strengthening is forecast,
and Rene could become a hurricane in two or three days. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends S of 19N with
axis near 67W, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated showers are in the
Mona Passage.

A tropical in the western Caribbean extends S of 18N with axis
near 80W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection and
thunderstorms are from 12N to 20N between 77W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 17N18W, then resumes
near 15N21W to 16N37W, then west of TS Paulette from 13N45W to
10N53W. The ITCZ begins near 10N53W and continues to 10N60W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves
above, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-13N between
28W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula
with high pressure over the Carolinas building in across the
Gulf. A surface trough is noted in southwest Gulf 19N94W to
23N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the
vicinity of the trough. ASCAT data shows lighter easterly winds
across the basin except in the southeast Gulf and to the west of
the surface trough. On the forecast, the stationary front will
gradually dissipate through mid-week. The trough over the SW Gulf
will linger tonight, before dissipating.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See tropical waves
section above.

Moderate easterly winds prevail over the central and eastern
Caribbean while gentle east winds are observed over the western
Caribbean. On the latest TPW, high moisture content is seen west
of 74W while dry conditions prevail east of 74W. Broad area of
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
Jamaica north across Cuba and Haiti. Pacific monsoon trough
extends from Colombia westward across Costa Rica and Nicaragua
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection in the northern
coast of Colombia.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move to 18.4N 42.9W Tue morning and
21.3N 51.8W Thu evening. Paulette will change little in intensity
through late Sat. A tropical wave stretching southward from the
Cayman Islands to Panama will move west across the western
Caribbean through Tue then move across central America by Tue
night. Another tropical wave stretching from the Mona Passage to
Venezuela will move west across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed,
then through the western Caribbean late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene.

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N79W to Florida
near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the
vicinity of the boundary. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted across central and northern Bahamas including
from the Florida Straits north to 31N. This convection is
associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which
is currently located between the Bahamas and Cuba. The TUTT is
forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida for much of
the week. Further east, a 1010 mb low pressure is near 29N67W with
scattered showers and thunderstorms 300 nm southeast from the
center. ASCAT data indicates gentle to moderate winds across the
waters N of 17N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of
the Atlantic north of 21N and east of 56W. Gentle winds are
observed north of 24N between 19W-41W.

Tropical Storm Paulette is near 17.5N 42.4W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Paulette will move to 17.9N 42.7W Tue morning, 18.8N 43.6W Tue
afternoon, 19.6N 45.0W Wed morning, 20.3N 46.8W Wed afternoon,
20.8N 48.8W Thu morning, and 21.1N 50.7W Thu afternoon. Paulette
will change little in intensity as it moves well north and east
of the Leeward Islands Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, a stationary
front off the NE Florida coast will dissipate tonight. Low
pressure near 30N67W will drift west through the week north of
the Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate flow will prevail across
the basin through the week.

Tropical Storm Paulette will change little in intensity through
late Sat. Elsewhere, a stationary front off the NE Florida coast
will dissipate tonight. Low pressure near 30N68W will drift west
through the week north of the Bahamas. Mainly gentle to moderate
flow will prevail across the basin through the week. Large swell
associated with Paulette may spread into the waters E of the
Bahamas by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
MTorres
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