[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 072034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling
in east of the center.  The satellite intensity estimates currently
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene.  Rene is the 17th
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.

Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to
the north of the storm.  Toward the end of the forecast period, a
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges,
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
in that direction at days 3 through 5.

Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear
and high amounts of moisture.  An increase in southwesterly shear
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend
and induce some weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is again an
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday.  A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 16.1N  22.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 16.3N  24.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.7N  26.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 17.2N  29.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.8N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 18.6N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.6N  37.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 22.1N  41.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 26.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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