[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 072031
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become
better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence
of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared,
with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant.
Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to
just above the 35-kt intensity estimate.

The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next
day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed
improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear
and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for
substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier
that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No
major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at
this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during
the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little,
though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to
24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering
flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection
could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A
mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central
North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to
turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 17.5N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.9N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.8N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.6N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 20.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 20.8N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 21.1N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 21.8N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 24.0N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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