[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 37.4N  57.3W at
05/1500Z UTC or 478 nm NE of Bermuda moving N at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 240 nm in the S quadrant of Omar.
Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by early
Sunday, and to dissipate by early Monday. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

A 1009 mb low is near 18N31W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N-20N between 30W and 40W.
Gradual development of this low is expected as it moves westward
to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week when the system
reaches the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium
chance for development within the next 48 hours. Please read the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 32W from 03N-18N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N-13N between 31W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 56W from 01N-19N, moving W at 10
kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this
time.

A tropical wave with axis along 68W has been repositioned
after analyzing latest satellite imagery, latest observations
and wave diagnostics. The wave is moving west at around 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-18N between
65W-70W.

A tropical wave axis is along 87W near the Gulf of Honduras S of
19N to central Honduras and continuing into the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 19N and W of the wave axis to across
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
19N17W to a 1010 mb low near 11N39W to 10N44W. The eastern
Pacific monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean from the
coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W to the northern coast of
Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along both boundaries between 26W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N96W to 21N95W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 26N and W of 92W. Mainly
broad ridging covers the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong
winds that were pulsing NW of the Yucatan Peninsula have
diminished in the past few hours. Mainly moderate easterly
flow prevails elsewhere, except light and variable winds
in the NE Gulf. A cold front was analyzed inland from the
South Carolina Upstate to across the Gulf coast U.S.
states.

The surface ridge over the SE United States will dissipate
today ahead of a weak front moving into the far N Gulf tonight.
The cold front will stall over the far N Gulf on Sun, then
dissipate by Mon. A stronger cold front may reach the NW Gulf
late Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight, then moderate to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Other than the two tropical waves discussed above, high pressure
is noted N-NE of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is not
ed from north of 16N between 72W-76W due to a mid to upper level
trough. A surface trough was analyzed over the Windward Passage
near this convection.

High pres N of the basin will contribute to fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere through today. The tropical wave currently
in the E Caribbean will continue to cause scattered showers as it
moves across the basin over the next few days. The trades will
diminish basinwide by the end of the weekend into early next
week as the high N of the area weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and
the special features low moving across the basin.

A 1020 mb surface high is centered near 19N81W. A cold front was
analyzed over southeast US along 31N. Broad ridging dominates
the open Atlantic waters N of 20N with moderate to fresh trades
S of 23N and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 23N.

The surface ridge will continue to support moderate to
fresh trades S of 23N and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N
of 23N. A weak front may drop just S of 31N by the end of the
weekend, stalling and dissipating through early next week. Weak
low pres and remnant troughing may linger in the NE portion
before dissipating by mid-week as high pres NE of the area
builds in.

$$

ERA
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