[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050925
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
524 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 36.2N 57.1W at 05/0900
UTC or 450 nm NE of Bermuda moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate convection
is noted within 240 nm in the S quadrant of Omar. Omar is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Sun, and to
dissipate by late Sun or early Mon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

A 1009 mb low is near 17N29W moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 28W
and 33W, with an additional area of similar convection from 15N-
19N between 34W-37W which may be associated with a weaker, more
transient low. Gradual development of this low is expected as it
moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the
system reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 30W/31W from 03N-18N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 11N-13N between 31W-33W.

A tropical wave axis is along 54W S of 19N to near the coast and
border of Suriname and French Guiana, moving W at 10 kt. No
significant convection is noted.

A tropical wave axis is along 68W from near the Mona Passage
southward to across the A-B-C Islands and into western Venezuela,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N-17N between 66W-67W.

A tropical wave axis is along 86W near the Gulf of Honduras S of
19N to central Honduras and continuing into the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted S of 19N and W of the wave
axis to across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central
America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 11N30W to low pressure near 11N38W to 09N50W. The
eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean
Sea from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W to the northern coast
of Colombia near 13N72W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 13N-17N between 17W-20W, from 09N-12N
between 35W-42W, and from 09N to 11N between 79W-82W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N-14N between 14W-26W, from
07N-09N between 35W-44W, and from 13N-15N between 28W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from the S Texas coastal waters near
27N97W to across the offshore waters of Veracruz to S Mexico near
18N95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
S of 22N and W of 92W, and also within 180 nm E-SE of the Texas
and Mexico coasts. Mainly broad ridging covers the remainder of
the basin. Fresh to strong winds that were pulsing NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula have diminished in the past few hours. Mainly
moderate easterly flow prevails elsewhere, except light and
variable winds in the NE Gulf. A cold front was analyzed inland
from the South Carolina Upstate to across the Gulf coast U.S.
states.

The front will slowly dip S and will stall over the far N Gulf on
Sun, then dissipate by Mon. A stronger cold front may reach the
NW Gulf late Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula early this morning and then again tonight, then
moderate to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the two tropical waves discussed above, high pressure
is noted N-NE of the basin. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 14N-17N between 72W-76W due to a mid to
upper level trough.

High pres N of the basin will contribute to fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere through today. An active tropical wave currently
in the E Caribbean will cause scattered showers and isolated as it
moves across the basin over the next few days. The trades will
diminish basinwide by the end of the weekend into early next week
as the high N of the area weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1020 mb is noted NE of the Bahamas near 29N79W,
while a forming cold front was analyzed offshore of the Carolinas.
Another cold front was analyzed inland over the western Carolinas.
Broad ridging dominates the open Atlantic waters N of 20N with
moderate to fresh trades S of 23N and gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow N of 23N.

The cold front over the Carolinas may drop just S-SE of 31N by
the end of the weekend, stalling and dissipating through early
next week. Weak low pres and remnant troughing may linger in the
NE portion before dissipating by mid-week as high pres NE of the
area builds in.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net