[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Omar, at 05/0300 UTC, is near
35.6N 57.3W. OMAR is moving ENE, 070 degrees, 04 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 210 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant. Surface to low level low pressure extends away from
the circulation that is around OMAR, toward 30N70W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 27N to 31N between 53W and
70W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 16N27W. A tropical wave is
along 29W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 540 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Gradual
development of this weather feature is expected as it moves
westward to west-northwestward. It is likely that a tropical
depression may form late this weekend, or early next week, when
the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium. Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical
Weather Outlook for the latest updates.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N39W. Precipitation:
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is in
the Atlantic Ocean within 480 nm of the center in the SE
semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the NW
semicircle. It is possible that some slow development may occur
during the next couple of days, before it merges or interacts
with the current 29W tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 52W/53W from 19N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation
is in the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from Puerto Rico
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A surface trough is along
64W/65W from 18N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
covers the waters from 20N southward, between the islands of the
eastern Caribbean Sea and 70W. The wave is moving toward an area
of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is accompanying the
upper level SE Cuba trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave
passes through parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong in clusters covers parts of the eastern
Pacific Ocean and parts of Central America from 10N to 17N
between the tropical central sections of Honduras and Nicaragua
and the westernmost sections of Guatemala. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, elsewhere, from 16N to the Yucatan Channel between the
tropical wave and 90W. The monsoon trough is along 12N/13N, from
72W in the Peninsula de la Guajira of NE Colombia, through
Nicaragua, beyond 90W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea from 72W westward. An upper level trough extends
from a cyclonic circulation center that is on top of SE Cuba,
toward E Honduras/NE Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to 11N30W, through the 1010 mb low
pressure center that is near 11N39W, to 09N51W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is
from 06N to 18N from 25W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from SW
Alabama to Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to South
Texas about halfway between Corpus Christi and Laredo. A second
surface trough is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico,
within 70 nm of the coast of Mexico from the northern parts of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to the coastal
waters of the Deep South of Texas. The 1008 mb low pressure
center of remnant low of NANA is in the eastern Pacific Ocean,
about 150 nm to the WSW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is from the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 21N in the Gulf of Mexico
between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60
nm of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 87W
and 89W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
225 nm of the coast of Texas and Mexico, from 24N to 29N from
92W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 28N southward.

A SE U.S.A. ridge will dissipate by tonight, in advance of a
weak front moving into the far N Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night. The front will stall there, in the far N Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, and then dissipate by Monday. It is possible that a
strong cold front may reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday
night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse to the northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Saturday night, and then continue
as moderate to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from Puerto Rico
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. A surface trough is along
64W/65W from 18N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
covers the waters from 20N southward, between the islands of the
eastern Caribbean Sea and 70W. The wave is moving toward an area
of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is accompanying the
upper level SE Cuba trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave
passes through parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong in clusters covers parts of the eastern
Pacific Ocean and parts of Central America from 10N to 17N
between the tropical central sections of Honduras and Nicaragua
and the westernmost sections of Guatemala. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, elsewhere, from 16N to the Yucatan Channel between the
tropical wave and 90W. The monsoon trough is along 12N/13N, from
72W in the Peninsula de la Guajira of NE Colombia, through
Nicaragua, beyond 90W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea from 72W westward. An upper level trough extends
from a cyclonic circulation center that is on top of SE Cuba,
toward E Honduras/NE Nicaragua.

The Bermuda High, to the north of the Caribbean Sea, will
contribute to fresh-to-strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere
through Saturday. An active tropical wave, currently in the E
Caribbean Sea, will cause scattered rainshowers and isolated
thunderstorms, as it moves across the Caribbean Sea during the
next few days. The trade winds will diminish basin-wide, by the
end of the weekend into early next week, as the Bermuda High
that is to the north of the area weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 65W westward. The upper level cyclonic wind flow is related
to the SE Cuba upper level cyclonic circulation center, and the
inverted trough that extends northeastward from the cyclonic
center. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate from 60W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area
that is from 20N to 27N from 60W westward. A 1019 mb high
pressure center is near 29N74W.

The Bermuda High, and a ridge extending along 28N, support
moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N, and gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow N of 25N. The ridge will build again, well to
the northeast of these waters early next week. Expect mainly
moderate E-SE winds basin-wide early next week.

$$
mt
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