[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2048 UTC Fri Sep 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 35.3N 57.3W at 04/2100
UTC or 410 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection and tstms
are within 180 nm S quadrant of Omar's center. Slow weakening is
forecast. Omar could become a remnant low this evening or
Saturday and is expected to dissipate over the weekend. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtmlfor
more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 25/26W
extending from 08N to 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1009 mb low
is near 15N25W associated with the wave. Scattered moderate
convection is is within 180 nm NW semicircle of the low. Gradual
development of this system is expected as it moves westward to
west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the
central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance this system
may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 07N to 18N
with axis near 50W, moving W at 10 kt. There is no convection
associated with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 18N with axis
near 64W, moving W at moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 13N to 16N between 62W and
65W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending S of 19N
with axis near 83W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 13N to 17N within 180 nm east
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 11N31W to low pres near
11N38W to 10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to 07N58W. Aside
from convection noted above, scattered moderate convection is
from 12N to 17N E of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 13N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the northern Gulf. A surface
trough extends across the SW Gulf from 25N96W to 20N96W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the
trough. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, as well as in
the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

High pres will dissipate tonight ahead of a weak front moving
into the far N Gulf Sat night. The front will stall there over
the far N Gulf on Sun, then dissipate by Mon. An strong cold
front may reach the NW Gulf Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Sat night,
then moderate to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Active weather prevails across the Caribbean waters due to two
tropical waves, one in the eastern Caribbean and one in the
western Caribbean. Active convection in the central Caribbean is
due to a TUTT.

Fresh to strong winds are noted in the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.

The Bermuda High to the north of the Caribbean will contribute
to fresh-strong trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere through Sat. An active tropical wave
currently in the E Caribbean will cause scattered showers and
isolated as it moves across the Caribbean over the next few days.
The trades will diminish basinwide by the end of the weekend
into early next week as the Bermuda High north of the area
weakens. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in these waters
for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging, extending across 28N, dominates the Atlc
subtropical waters with mainly fair weather, except for an area
of scattered showers N of 27N between 53W and 66W.

The Bermuda High and a ridge extending along 28N supports
moderate to fresh trades S of 25N and gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow N of 25N. The ridge will rebuild well northeast
of these waters early next week, contributing toward mainly
moderate E-SE winds basinwide early next week. No tropical
cyclone activity is expected in these waters for the next several
days.

$$
AL
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