[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of NANA at 04/0300 UTC, are near 15.6N 92.0W. NANA
is 105 nm/195 km to the NW of Guatemala City in Guatemala. NANA
is moving WSW, or 250 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Precipitation: Scattered to
numerous strong is within 120 nm to 240 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, within 30 nm to 60 nm
of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 96W. Scattered to
numerous strong also is within 120 nm to 210 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant, in Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong is in the Gulf of Mexico from 27N
southward from 85W westward. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Omar, at 04/0300 UTC, is near
35.2N 59.1W. OMAR is moving ESE, 105 degrees, 09 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 28N to 38N between 46W and 64W. Much if
not all the precipitation is closer to a nearby frontal
boundary. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Development of this weather feature is expected to be slow
during the next couple of days, while it moves
west-northwestward about 15 mph. It is more likely that a
tropical depression may form early next week, in the central
part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, where environmental
conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development.
Please, read the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the
latest updates. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in
the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N37W. Precipitation:
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is in
the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 15N between 34W and 43W. Gradual
development is possible early next week, once the larger
tropical wave that now is along 23W, passes to the north of the
1009 mb low pressure center on Sunday.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 46W/47W from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation
is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers
the waters from 20N southward, between 57W and the islands of
the eastern Caribbean Sea. The wave is moving toward an area of
upper level SW wind flow, that is on the eastern side of the
upper level Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is on top of Hispaniola. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean Sea and parts
of the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 27N between 57W and 79W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 69W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 12N27W, to 13N42W. The ITCZ continues
from 13N42W to 15N58W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 06N to 17N
between 23W and 50W. Isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough from 20W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 600 nm to 700 nm of the
remnants of NANA in the N semicircle. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the Gulf of
Mexico from 27N southward from 85W westward.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in Texas near 30N102W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 270 nm of the low pressure center in
the E quadrant.

The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak. A 1015 mb high
pressure center is in SW Alabama.

High pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will dissipate
through Friday, in advance of a weak front moving into the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The front will stall in the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then dissipate slowly
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Saturday night, then
moderate to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of
Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 27N
between 57W and 79W. A tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers
the Caribbean Sea from 69W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 73W in Colombia and
NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, in Colombia
and parts of NW Venezuela, between 72W and 76W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 15N southward from 74W westward, in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the central Caribbean
Sea. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere through
Saturday. The trade winds will diminish basin-wide, by the end
of the weekend into early next week, as high pressure N-NE of
the area weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of
Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 27N
between 57W and 79W. A tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers
the Caribbean Sea from 69W westward. Isolated moderate is in the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N southward from 56W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 80W westward. A surface ridge extends
from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 34N36W, to
32N47W, 28N60W 29N79W, into northern Florida.

A ridge extending along 29N supports moderate to locally fresh
trade winds S of 25N, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N
of 25N. It is possible that a weak cold front may settle S of
31N this weekend, weakening the ridge, before dissipating. New
high pressure N-NE area will support mainly moderate E-SE flow
basin-wide early next week.

$$
mt
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