[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2043 UTC Thu Sep 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nana is centered near 16.0N 91.1W at 03/2100
UTC or 190 nm WSW of Belize City moving WSW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. On the forecast track, the
center of Nana will move over southeastern Mexico tonight, then
move over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday. Nana continues to
weaken over land, with only a small area of convection remaining
near and to the south of the low-level center. Continued
weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low
pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in
12-24 h. Nana will continue to produce heavy rainfall, with
isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches over Guatemala
and portions of southeastern Mexico. These rainfall amounts may
produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 35.4N 60.1W at 03/2100
UTC or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving ESE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Omar remains a sheared
depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the
south of the surface circulation center. Gradual weakening is
forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low on Friday.
The remnant low should dissipate on Saturday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 20W, from 18N southward. A 1007 mb
low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N. This wave
is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days
while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph. After that, a
tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over
the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are
forecast to be more favorable for development. The latest
Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Refer to the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

A tropical wave axis is near 26/27W, from 18N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Associated convection is noted in the
monsoon trough section below. A 1007 mb low pressure that
developed along this wave has lingered behind the wave, centered
near 11.5N24.5W. There is a low chance for this system to
develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, with a
medium chance of development through the next five days. Refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

A tropical wave axis is near 45W S of 18N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 58W from 19N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted within 60 nm
west of the wave axis from 13N to 16N. Moisture related to this
wave will spread over the Lesser Antilles tonight into Fri,
increasing the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms.

A tropical wave axis is over the Caribbean Sea near 79W south of
18N, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 12N-18N between 77W- 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes extends from 17N16W to 12N27W to
12N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 15N between 17W and 30W. A large monsoon circulation
prevails across the eastern Atlantic. As typical with a strong
monsoon circulation, three low pressure systems are embedded
within the monsoon trough. Two of them are mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section above. The third one is near 12.5N36.5W,
with scattered moderate convection within 90 nm NW quadrant of
low center.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean, dominates the Gulf
waters. A 1018 mb high pressure is over the NE Gulf near 29N88W.
Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the low.
Moderate winds prevail over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. The high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will
dissipate through Fri ahead of a weak front moving into the
northern Gulf Sat. The front will stall over the northern Gulf
Sun, then slowly dissipate through early next week. Looking
ahead, another stronger cold front may enter the northwest Gulf
by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture prevails across the Caribbean, with satellite
derived precipitable water values showing very high deep layer
moisture over most of the basin. Clusters of showers and
thunderstorms are observed in a large swath from the Lesser
Antilles all the way to the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the
Caribbean, except for the SW Caribbean where light to gentle
winds prevail. Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the
central Caribbean through Sun with gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends east to west across the waters north of
25N. This is supporting light and variables winds N of 25N, with
gentle to moderate winds along the southern periphery of the
ridge. Pulses of fresh to strong winds are possible north of
Hispaniola and near the Windward Passage tonight. The ridge will
dissipate by Sun ahead of a weak frontal boundary entering the
area from the north, but otherwise little change is expected into
early next week W of 65W.

Farther east, fresh to locally strong SW winds and 8 to 9 ft
seas are south of the monsoon trough, mainly east of 35W. As
previously mentioned, the monsoon trough is very active over the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and there is a high chance a tropical
depression will form in the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
by early next week.

$$
AL
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