[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The system under observation earlier today over the central
Caribbean has become Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine, centered
near 15.0N 73.2W at 31/2100 UTC, or 270 nm SE of Kingston
Jamaica, moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection prevails from
10N-20N between 68W-75W. Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua
should monitor the progress of this system. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible
across parts of Central America, from late this weekend into
early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica,
Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash flooding and mudslides may be
possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. The rainfall threat may be
enhanced by T.D Twenty-Nine. Please refer to bulletins and
forecasts provided by your national meteorological service for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 35W
from 10N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted in the vicinity of the wave from 02N-08N between 30W-
40W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 76W
from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 11N16W to
09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 03N34W, then continues
west of a tropical wave near 03N37W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of
the ITCZ between 15W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is lingering across the SE Gulf, extending off the
SW Florida coast near 26N82W to the Yucatan Channel near 20N86W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front. Gentle to moderate
NNE winds are noted behind the front across most of the basin.
A surface trough stretches across the central Gulf from 29N89W to
25N85W, while another trough extends over the western Gulf from
28N96W to 20N94W. No significant convection is associated with
these features. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft
in the southern Bay of Campeche.

A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf
Sun, extend from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan
peninsula on Mon afternoon, and move east of the area Mon night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the region Sun
night through Tue night. Strong winds are expected to continue
over the SE Gulf Wed and Thu associated with Tropical Depression
Twenty-Nine in the Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the sections above for details on T.D. Twenty-
Nine and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

The monsoon trough extends from north of Colombia near 11N76W to
a 1010 mb low near 11N80W to 11N83W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean mainly south of 10N
between 77W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving
across the Lesser Antilles from 10N-15N between 59W-64W.
Moderate to fresh trades are in the eastern Caribbean with gentle
to moderate winds across the rest of the basin. Seas are
averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near T.D. Twenty-Nine.

T.D. Twenty-Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.1N
75.6W Sun morning, move to 15.4N 78.3W Sun afternoon, 15.5N 80.4W
Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 82.1W Mon
afternoon, 14.3N 83.1W Tue morning, and inland to 13.8N 83.7W Tue
afternoon. Twenty-Nine will weaken to a tropical storm while
moving inland near 13.5N 85.5W Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic near 31N62W to
27N77W, then stalls from 27N77W to the southeast Florida coast
near 27N80W. Showers are within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to
fresh NNE winds are north of the cold front with light to gentle
winds south of it. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft
near 31N. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 27N67W to 22N70W.
Scattered moderate convection is near this trough and to the west
of it across the Bahamas mainly south of 26N between 67W-78W.
Surface ridging extends across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N16W. Light to gentle
winds prevail under the influence of the high pressure with
seas of 5-7 ft.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will stall tonight and
dissipate N of 26N by early Sun. A strong cold front will sweep
across the forecast area Sun night through Tue, and will stall
from 27N65W to the central Bahamas Tue night before dissipating
Wed night. Strong to near gale force north to northwest winds and
building seas are expected behind the front and will affect both
the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida.

$$

ERA
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