[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 15N71W along a tropical
wave with an axis along 71W from 22N southward moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident near the low from 12N-19N between 66W-73W. This system
is gradually becoming better organized, and conditions are
conducive for further development. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance
moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Interests
in Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC Islands and
Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones for more
details.

Gale Warning: The low in the Caribbean will develop gale force
winds by 01/0600 UTC near 15N between 74W-76W. As the low
continues to progress westward, winds will increase to storm force
by 02/0000 UTC from 16N-18N between 77W-83W and will continue
through at least 02/1200 UTC. Seas will build to 15 ft in this
area. For more information, please refer to the Atlantic High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible
across parts of Central America, from late this weekend into
early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica,
Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash flooding and mudslides may be
possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. The rainfall threat may be
enhanced by possible tropical cyclone development of the low
pressure area associated with a tropical wave along 71W. Please
refer to bulletins and forecasts provided by your national
meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 10N southward
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
currently associated with both the wave and the ITCZ noted from
03N-08N between 32W-38W.

See the Special Features section for more information on the
tropical wave along 71W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N-22N between 74W-77W. Model guidance shows this wave
is likely to merge with the tropical wave currently along 71W
during the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 04N33W,
then continues west of a tropical wave near 03N34W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
200 nm of the ITCZ between 15W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is lingering across the SE Gulf,
extending off the SW Florida coast near 26N82W to the northern
Yucatan near 21N87W. Showers are seen along the front with
isolated moderate convection right off the NE Yucatan coast.
Moderate NNE winds are noted behind the front in the SE Gulf. A
surface trough stretches across the western Gulf from 19N92W to
the southeast Texas coast near 30N95W. No significant convection
is associated with this feature. Light to moderate winds are noted
across the rest of the Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with
upwards of 7 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche.

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Bay of
Campeche this morning. A strong cold front will move into the
northern Gulf Sun, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula on Mon, and move south of the area Tue. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are expected across the region Sun night through
Tue. Strong winds are possible in the SE Gulf Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section about the low and
tropical wave along 71W and the tropical waves section for the
other tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean.

The monsoon trough extends from north of Colombia near 12N73W
to the coast of Panama near 09N79W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 76W-
84W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving across the
Lesser Antilles from 10N-15N between 59W-64W. Moderate to fresh
trades are in the eastern Caribbean with light to moderate winds
across the rest of the basin. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with
upwards of 9 ft near the 1007 mb low.

A low pressure area along a tropical wave in the central
Caribbean will travel westward into the western Caribbean, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance
moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Heavy
rainfall is already affecting Costa Rica and Nicaragua adjacent
waters. Regardless of development, gale and storm force winds are
expected over the waters from 14N to 18N between 72W and 85W
tonight through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic near 31N62W to
27N77W, then stalls from 27N77W to the southeast Florida coast
near 27N80W. Showers are within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to
fresh NNE winds are north of the cold front with light to gentle
winds south of it. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft
near 31N. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 28N67W to 23N71W.
Scattered moderate convection is near this trough and to the west
of it across the Bahamas from 21N-28N between 67W-77W. Surface
ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb
high near Portugal. Light to gentle winds prevail under the
influence of the high pressure with seas 5-7 ft.

The cold front will stall and dissipate from 28N69W to the
Florida Keys later today. A strong cold front will sweep across
the forecast area Sun night through Tue, with strong north to
northwest winds and building seas expected behind the front.

$$
AReinhart
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