[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A developing low pressure area along a tropical wave is centered
near 15N69W with an estimated MSLP of 1007 mb. The low and wave
are moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous scattered to strong
convection is evident near the low, from 13N to 18N between 68W
and 72W. This system is slowly becoming better organized, and
conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall
across portions of the ABC islands and Jamaica this weekend. The
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is
high. Please refer to the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones for
more details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible across
parts of Central America, from late this weekend into early next
week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and
Honduras. Flash flooding and mudslides may be possible, if heavy
rainfall occurs. The rainfall threat may be enhanced by possible
tropical cyclone development of the low pressure area associated
with a tropical wave along 69W. Please refer to bulletins and
forecasts provided by your national meteorological service for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 11N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated
with the ITCZ is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 22N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. A low is analyzed along the wave axis
near 15N69W. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details on this wave and low.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 12N to 17N between 72W and 75W. Model guidance shows
this wave is likely to merge in the central Caribbean Sea with the
tropical wave currently along 69W, during the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to
04N30W, to 03N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 08N between 09W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is slowly exiting the Gulf of Mexico, and
is analyzed from Miami Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated
showers are in the extreme SE part of the Gulf, associated with
the frontal boundary.

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Bay of
Campeche this morning. A strong cold front will move into the
northern Gulf on Sunday, extend from southern Florida to the
Yucatan peninsula on Monday, the move south of the area Tuesday.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across most of the
region Sunday night through Tues. Strong winds may linger in the
SE Gulf on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 69W, from 22N southward, moving westward
at 15 knots. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near
15N69W. This disturbance is slowly becoming better organized, and
a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the
system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. The chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is high.
Please the Special Features section above for more details.

A second tropical wave is about 240 nm west of the first wave along
73W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. These two
waves are expected to merge during the next 24 hours near 75W.

The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific
Ocean is along 09N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia across
Panama into Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers are
noted south of 13N southward and from 73W westward. Little change
in the position of the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is
expected through Sunday.

Developing low pressure along a tropical wave in the central
Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Heavy
rainfall is possible in Central America early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to Miami Florida. Isolated
showers are evident within 180 nm northwest of the front, and
scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side
of a line from 32N63W to 22N76W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward, east of the cold front, associated with an
elongated ridge of high pressure. Generally fair weather
conditions prevail across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, from 18N to
32N between 38W and 62W.

The existing cold front from Bermuda to Miami will stall and
dissipate from 32N55W to the Florida Keys later today. A strong
cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sunday night
through Tuesday, with strong northerly winds and building seas
expected behind the front.

$$
Mundell
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