[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, and within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either
side of the line that extends from 12N56W to 12N60W to 18N along
the tropical wave. This weather system, slowly, is becoming
better organized. The atmospheric conditions appear to be
conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form during this weekend. The weather system is
forecast to move westward across the central sections and the
western sections of the Caribbean Sea.  Expect heavy rainfall
across parts of the ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next
48 hours, is high. Please refer to the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones, for more details.

A Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is
possible across parts of Central America, from late this weekend
into early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa
Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. flash flooding and mudslides may
be possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. It is possible for the
rainfall threat to be enhanced by the 68W/69W tropical
wave/possible tropical cyclone development. Please, refer to
bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your national
meteorological service,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within from 07N to 14N, within 300 nm to the east of
the wave, and within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is about 230 nm to the west of the
68W/69W tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from
08N to 12N, in Colombia and Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is elsewhere within 160 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 08N to 13N. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area from 07N to Hispaniola,
SE Cuba, and Jamaica from the second tropical wave westward. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica.

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from the border of Belize and
Guatemala, southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is in western Nicaragua. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the
coastal waters of Honduras between 87W and 88W, and along the
border of Nicaragua and Honduras between 86W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to
05N26W, and from 04N to 03N between 28W and 46W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from
40W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to Miami in Florida,
to the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to northern Guatemala.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
area that is from the coast of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel
and 22N, between 85W and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

The current Miami Florida-to-Yucatan Channel cold front will
drift southward during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will continue in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico through early Saturday. A strong cold front will move
into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The strong cold
front will extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula
on Monday, and move to the south of the area on Tuesday. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected across the region from
Sunday night through Tuesday. Strong winds are possible in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 135 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 90
nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that
extends from 12N56W to 12N60W to 18N along the tropical wave.
This weather system, slowly, is becoming better organized. The
atmospheric conditions appear to be conducive for more
development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form
during this weekend. The weather system is forecast to move
westward across the central sections and the western sections of
the Caribbean Sea.  Expect heavy rainfall across parts of the
ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
high. Please refer to the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones,
for more details.

A second tropical wave is about 230 nm to the west of the
68W/69W tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from
08N to 12N, in Colombia and Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is elsewhere within 160 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 08N to 13N. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area from 07N to Hispaniola,
SE Cuba, and Jamaica from the second tropical wave westward. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica.

Active weather, associated with a developing area of low
pressure along a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea,
will shift westward into the western Caribbean Sea, through the
weekend. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during
this weekend, as the system moves westward across the central
and western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond
Miami in Florida, toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
within 180 nm to 240 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 24N
northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N and Cuba to
24N between 69W and 78W, along the coast of Florida from 25N to
26N.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N12W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near
32N30W, to 26N57W to 27N68W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from the cold
front eastward.

The current 31N68W-to-Miami Florida cold front will stall, and
dissipate, from 28N69W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. A strong
cold front will sweep across the forecast area, from Sunday
night through Tuesday. Expect strong north to northwest winds,
and building seas, behind the front.

$$
mt
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