[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Zeta has weakened to a tropical storm over the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight, and is centered near 21.0N 88.4W at 27/0900 UTC or 70
nm ESE of Progreso Mexico. Tropical Storm Zeta is moving NW at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 17N to 24N between 84W and
91W, including the Yucatan Peninsula. Along, scattered moderate
convection is located along a band from 21N84N to 11N78W. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge into the Gulf of
Mexico later this morning, then restrengthen to a hurricane this
afternoon. Zeta is then expected to accelerate northward, and the
center should reach the northern Gulf coast late Wed at or near
hurricane strength. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on
Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 50W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N
between 48N and 53W. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring
behind the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
65W from Venezuela to the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing S of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in
association with this wave. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
just east of the Lesser Antilles, S of 20N, are being produced by
an upper-level trough that is nearly stationary over the area. The
wave will slow down today over Puerto Rico then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight. The wave will increase the likelihood
of showers and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia
border to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N30W to
06N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between
08W-11W and from 07N-09N E of 15W to the W coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm Zeta. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge
are expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late
Wed, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Residents in the warning areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

Away from the direct influence of Zeta, gentle to moderate winds
are noted elsewhere across the Gulf waters.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and stretch from
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thu. It will exit S and E
of the basin Fri night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds
will follow behind the front through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta. Tropical storm continues will continue in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Heavy
rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

Previous convection over Central America from moist southwesterly
flow over the area has diminished.

Away from the direct influence of Zeta, moderate to fresh trade
winds are noted per scatterometer data across the remainder of the
basin, with the exception of mainly light to gentle winds over
the SW Caribbean.

A tropical wave has crossed the Lesser Antilles overnight and is
followed by fresh to strong east winds. The wave will move across
the eastern Caribbean through tonight, the central Caribbean
through Wed night, and the western Caribbean by Thu night.
Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1027 mb
high pressure centered southwest of the Azores near 32N38W. A
surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 31N70W into the northwest and central Bahamas. A belt of
fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted along the
southern periphery of the ridge but mainly E of 55W.

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the
central Atlantic and lower pressure over the Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico will lead to moderate to fresh SW winds S of 27N through
Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Fri, with some
strong SW winds ahead of it. The front will reach 29N65W to the
central Bahamas by late Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
follow this front, mainly N of 28N, through the weekend. A
combination of northerly and easterly swell generated from a
tropical wave passing south of the the area Wed will keep seas at
8 to 10 ft N and E of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands into
Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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