[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the northeast
coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico near Ciudad Chemuyil
around 11:00 PM CDT (0400 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 70
kt (130 km/h), a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. At 27/0600, Hurricane Zeta is centered
near 20.6N 87.9W or 30 nm NW of Tulum Mexico moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center, except 150 nm
SE quadrant. Currently, Zeta is producing strong winds and heavy
rainfall over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move over the southern Gulf of
Mexico later today, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the
watch area on Wednesday. Some additional weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Zeta is
forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of
Mexico later today, and be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 03N to 16N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern
end of the wave axis, mainly from 12N-15N between 46W-50W.
Scatterometer data show fresh E-SE winds behind the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
62W/63W. Surface observations clearly indicate the presence of
the wave that is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Leeward Islands. Similar convective
activity is also noted over the Windward Islands ahead of a mid-
upper level trough that extends across the SE Caribbean into NE
Venezuela. The wave is forecast to move across Puerto Rico and the
UK/US Virgin Islands today, reaching Dominican Republic tonight.
The wave will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
across the Greater Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia
border to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N30W to
06N46W to near the coast of French Guiana. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-06N between 08W-11W, from 07N-09N E of 15W
to the W coast of Africa, and from 05N-11N between 35W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane
Zeta. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds over the SE Gulf and N of the Yucatan peninsula in association
with the outer circulation of Zeta, with strongest winds of 30-35
kt across the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions will continue
to deteriorate across the Gulf Tue and Wed as Zeta moves across
the basin toward the northern Gulf coast.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from southeastern
Alabama early Thu and from near Sarasota, to the NW Yucatan
Peninsula, to the far eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri and
weaken as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf water on Sat. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will follow in behind the front through
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Zeta. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge
are expected to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is
expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and
western Cuba through Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding
in urban areas. Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic
circulation of Zeta cover most of the NW Caribbean N of 17N and W
of 80W as well as western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These
winds will persist over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan
Channel this Tue. Outer bands of Zeta are reaching west and
central Cuba.

Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region continues to
advect abundant moisture over Central America, particularly across
Nicaragua. This weather pattern will persist on Tue, with
increasing moisture over Honduras as well.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted per scatterometer data
across the remainder of the basin, with the exception of mainly
light to gentle winds over the SW Caribbean. The next tropical
wave is forecast to reach the Caribbean Sea by Wed followed by a
surge in the trade wind flow.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1028 mb
high pressure located SW of the Azores near 32N36W. This system
extends a ridge westward toward the Bahamas and Florida. A belt of
fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted along the
southern periphery of the ridge but mainly E of 50W.

A cold front will move off NE Florida early on Fri and reach from
near 29N65W to the central Bahamas and to near western Cuba by
late Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the
front N of 29N. Decaying long-period northeast swell over the
waters north of Puerto Rico will continue through Tue night,
before a set of east swell behind a tropical wave moves through
those same waters Wed through Thu.

$$
GR
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