[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 19.5N 86.0W at 26/2100 UTC
or 78 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong convection is from
160 nm NW quadrant, 110 nm NE quadrant, 100 nm SE quadrant and
160 nm SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 15N-23N between 80W-82W. Seas 12 ft
or greater are within 60 nm NW and SE quadrant, 90 nm NE
quadrant and 30 nm SW quadrant with seas to 24 ft. A
northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula
later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area
on Wednesday. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is
forecast to strengthen again when it moves over the southern Gulf
of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength
when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 02N to 16N, moving westward
at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 04N-12N between 36W-46W.

A tropical wave is along 58W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-20N
between 53W-60W. A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E
of Barbados is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh
to locally strong winds are also noted near the northern end of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 05N30W to 07N40W.
The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N43W and goes to
06N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 28W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta currently located in the NW Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low over SE Texas to
30N87w. No significant convection is noted across the Gulf of
Mexico, with the exception of an area of scattered moderate to
Strong convection filtering into the Bay of Campeche associated
to T.S. Zeta in the Yucatan Channel. Zeta is forecast to become
extratropical as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic States early
on Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from
southeastern Alabama early Thu and from near Sarasota, to the NW
Yucatan Peninsula and to the far eastern Bay of Campeche by late
Fri. Fresh northerly winds will follow in behind the front.
Expect for long-period swell from Zeta to begin impacting the
south-central waters late this afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through
early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over
extreme western Cuba today and tonight.

Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is ongoing and expected to
continue from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba,
the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region will continue
to advect abundant moisture over Central America but mainly from
Panama to Nicaragua. This will maintain the likelihood of
showers and tstms over that area.

Moderate to fresh easterly trades winds will prevail over the
east-central Caribbean Sea E of 76W into Tue due to the pressure
gradient between Zeta and high pressure over the Atlantic. ASCAT
also shows fresh to strong southeast winds concentrated south of
Jamaica from 14N to 21N and east of 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for
details.

Fresh to strong winds are noted east of the surface trough
extending southward from a 1013 mb low pressure near 34N69W,
mainly North of 27N to 31N between 64W-72W.

A strong 1028 mb high centered near 33N32W dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds are noted along from 29N to the southern periphery of
the Atlantic ridge mainly E of 56W. Similar wind speeds are
observed between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa.
These winds are affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic
waters of W Africa N of Dakar Senegal.

$$
MTorres

$$
Torres
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