[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 19.1N 85.3W at 26/1500 UTC
or 121 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from
16N-20N between 83W-86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 15N-23N between 76W-88W. A NW
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday
night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is
forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later
today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later today.  Some weakening is likely while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta
is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern
Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on
Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 02N to 16N, moving westward
at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 04N-12N between 36W-46W.

A tropical wave is along 58W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-20N
between 53W-60W. A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E
of Barbados is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh
to locally strong winds are also noted near the northern end of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 05N30W to 07N40W.
The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N43W and goes to
06N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 28W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta currently located in the NW Caribbean Sea.
More precisely, Zeta will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.1N
86.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90
kt, move to near then coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near
21.5N 88.8W Tue morning, to near 23.3N 90.8W Tue evening with
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts to 85 kt, to near 25.7N
91.8W Wed morning, then begin to weaken as turns to the
north-northeast to near 28.9N 90.7W Wed evening with maximum
sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then move inland and weaken
to a tropical storm near 33.0N 87.0W Thu morning. Zeta will
become extratropical as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic States
early on Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach
from southeastern Alabama early Thu and from near Sarasota, to
the NW Yucatan Peninsula and to the far eastern Bay of Campeche
by late Fri. Fresh northerly winds will follow in behind the
front. Expect for long-period swell from Zeta to begin
impacting the south-central waters late this afternoon.

Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida. In addition, a stationary front extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to 29N90W to E Texas near 30N94W.
Radar imagery shows the front is void of precipitation.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through
early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over
extreme western Cuba today and tonight.

Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is ongoing and expected to
continue from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba,
the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region will continue
to advect abundant moisture over Central America but mainly from
Panama to Nicaragua. This will maintain the likelihood of
showers
and tstms over that area on Mon.

Fresh winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean
into Tue due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high
pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for
details.

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to Melbourne
Florida near 28N81W. Scattered moderate convection has developed
ahead of this trough, encompassing the Bahamas and adjacent
waters.

A strong 1030 mb high centered near 33N32W dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds are noted along the southern periphery of the Atlantic
ridge mainly E of 55W. Similar wind speeds are observed between
the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa. These winds are
affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic waters of W Africa N
of Dakar Senegal.

$$
Formosa
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