[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Epsilon was declared a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the
north Atlantic waters, and the last advisory was issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system at 26/0300 UTC. At this
time, Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon is centered near 48.6N 38.8W
or 590 nm ENE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 40 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next day or so before the post-tropical
cyclone is absorbed by a large extratropical low pressure system
on Monday night or early Tuesday. Large swells generated by
Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles,
the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane
Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 18.2N 83.9W at 26/0600 UTC
or 220 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NNW at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is observed from 15.5N to 18.5N between 82W and 87W. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel later today or tonight,
move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta
is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over
the Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on
Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 37W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at
about 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 05N-14N between 33W-41W. The wave
shows up well in TPW animation.

A tropical wave is along 54W from 07N to 18N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern
end of the wave axis, particularly from 17N-20N between 50W-55W.
A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E of Barbados is
helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh to locally
strong winds are also noted near the northern end of the wave
axis. Tropical Wave guidances confirmed the presence of the wave
that it is also well defined in the 700 streamline analysis.

The tropical wave located across the central Caribbean is no
longer discernible in satellite imagery or surface observations
as it appears that it was absorbed by the circulation of Zeta. A
well established southerly flow is noted to the E of Zeta over the
central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 06N27W to 08N36W to
07N40W to 06N47W to near the coast of French Guiana. A surface
trough is within the ITCZ and extends from 08N46W to 04N47W. A
scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift associated with the
trough. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is E
of the trough axis from 08N-09N between 43W-45W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 25-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta currently located in the NW Caribbean Sea.
Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.
Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of
the U.S. Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of
Zeta.

A surface trough extends across central Florida into the SE Gulf.
This feature is the reflexion of a mid to upper level trough
moving eastward from the SE CONUS and Florida in to the Atlantic
Ocean. Abundant moisture is associated with this system, that
will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over
South Florida and the Florida Keys on Mon. Recent scatterometer
data show the wind shift associated with the trough with moderate
to fresh intensity on either side of it. A weak ridge dominates
the western Gulf where mainly gentle to moderate winds are noted.

Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf on Wed followed by fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme
western Cuba on Monday.

Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
Since yesterday, a band-like of showers with embedded thunderstorms
is noted to the E of Zeta over eastern Cuba, where locally heavy
rain has been reported. In addition, a band of fresh to strong SE
winds is observed by scatterometer data in the lee of east and
central Cuba and between Jamaica and Cuba. These winds are the
result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
tropical cyclone Zeta.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is to the south of Zeta
affecting Nicaragua. Upper diffluence is helping to induce this
convective activity. Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific
region will continue to advect abundant moisture over Central
America but mainly from Panama to Nicaragua. This will maintain
the likelihood of showers and tstms over that area on Mon.

Fresh winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean
through Mon night due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and
high pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swells generated by post-tropical cyclone Epsilon will
continue to impact areas E of the Bahamas on Mon. Tropical Storm
Zeta will remain west of the area, but will continue to bring
heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida, the Strait of
Florida, and adjacent waters early this week. Please see the
Special Features section above for details.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section
for details.

A surface trough is analyzed from a 1012 mb low pressure located N
of area near 32N76W to central Florida. A fair amount of cloudiness
is ahead of the trough covering most of the Bahamas and the waters
W of 68W.

A 1030 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 34N32W
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are noted per scatterometer data along
the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge mainly E of 50W.
Similar wind speeds are observed between the ridge and lower
pressures over W Africa. These winds are affecting the Canary
Islands and the Atlantic waters of W Africa N of Dakar, Senegal.

$$
GR
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