[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 46.2N 44.3W at 25/2100
UTC or 365 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 40 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is mostly 300 nm in the NE quadrant.  Little change in
strength is expected over the next several hours, and Epsilon is
expected to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone
tonight. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda,
the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions
of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at
website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 17.7N 83.4W at 25/2100 UTC
or 265 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba. Zeta is stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong
convection is 260 nm in the southern semicircle. Zeta is
stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move
near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan
Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta is
expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on
Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 03N to 15N, moving
westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 07N-13N between
34W-38W.

A tropical wave is located along 51W from 05N to 19N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the northern portion of the wave axis from 13N-20N between
48W-54W. This convection is being enhanced to the west by an
upper-level trough with an axis just E of Barbados. Fresh winds
are also noted to the E of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with an axis
along 73W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted west of the wave from 14N-19N between
73W-79W. ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong east trades south of
Hispaniola and east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 08N34W, the west of
the tropical wave near 08N38W and dives southwest to 03N50W near
the coast of Brazil. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from
03N-12N between 20W-34W, and from 03N-07N between 38W-48W. ASCAT
Shows moderate to fresh easterly trades along and north of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea.

As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front enters the NE Gulf from the
Panhandle of Florida near 29N83W to 24N89W, then transitions
To a stationary front to 22N97W N of Tampico, Mexico. The front
is void of precipitation and is expected to dissipate tonight.
ASCAT indicates moderate SE winds north of the stationary front
>From 22N to 27N near Corpus Christi. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Looking ahead,
another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed
followed by fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Zeta in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Zeta is
expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across central
and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula, and adjacent waters through Wednesday, with
localized amounts of 12 inches possible.

Fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail east of the
Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean into mid-week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move to 18.7N 84.3W Mon morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N 85.7W Mon afternoon, move
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.1N 87.6W Tue morning,
then offshore near 23.2N 89.6W Tue afternoon, 25.7N 90.8W Wed
morning, and move inland over southern Louisiana and weaken to a
tropical storm near 29.4N 90.3W Wed afternoon. Zeta will weaken
to a tropical depression near 37.0N 83.0W by Thu afternoon. Fresh
winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean through the
next 24 hours due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high
pressure over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Epsilon. Long-period northeast swell generated from
T.S. Epsilon in the north Atlantic will continue to impact areas
northeast Of the Bahamas through tonight, and will also affect
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east
coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section
for details.

A surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas extending from a
1013 mb low pressure near 31N78W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is from the northern Bahamas 27N-31N between 67W-78W,
and is being enhanced by upper level diffluence.

A 1029 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N32W. This broad
high is enhancing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from
16N- 28N E of 55W. Strong NE winds are occurring between Western
Sahara and the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Zeta will remain west of the area, but will bring
heavy rain and gusty winds to South Florida, the Florida
Straits, and adjacent waters into mid-week.

$$
MTorres
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