[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Epsilon is near 29.4N 59.7W at 21/1800
UTC, or about 320 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 959 mb.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 95 kt with gusts to
115 kt. Tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 380 nm in
the N semicircle and 80 nm in the S semicircle. Wave heights of
12 feet or greater extend up to 750 nm from the center in the NE
quadrant. The maximum wave heights are 32 ft. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in bands out
to 600 nm from the center in the E semicircle and 210 nm in the
W semicircle. A turn toward the NW is expected tonight, followed
by a turn toward the N by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach
to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 01N-16N, moving
W at 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-10N.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 270 nm E of the
wave axis from 03N-10.5N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-19N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 14N-17N and from
07N-11.5N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is estimated to be along 76W from
01N-18N, based on continuity, moving W at 10 kt. This tropical
wave has been difficult to track during the last 24 hours.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N-21N
between 71W-81W may be more related to the trough over the
western Caribbean than to the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W to 13N21W. The ITCZ is along 06/07N between 21W-32W, along
05/06N between 36W-46W, and along 08N between 50W-56W. Aside from
the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along and within
180 nm S of the ITCZ between 21W-26W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 300 nm N of the ITCZ between
38W-46W, and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 50W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad 1008 mb low pressure is near Cozumel Mexico. A 1025 mb
high pressure is centered near Asheville North Carolina. The
gradient between the high and the low is currently producing
fresh E winds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, mainly
north of 23.5N and east of 94W. These winds will continue through
tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through
Sun. Currently, enhanced moisture and upper-level diffluence over
southern Florida and the Florida Straits are enhancing scattered
showers and isolated tstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
mainly east of 86.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low just west of Cozumel
Mexico near 20N87.5W to a 1009 mb low in the SW Caribbean near
15N81W to 11N81.5W. This entire system is a broad, weak trough of
low pressure. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 13N-21N between 71W-81W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms prevail elsewhere across the western and central
Caribbean between 70W-87W. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate SE
winds between the trough and the coasts of Cuba and Jamaica.
Moderate W winds are west of the trough in the Gulf of Honduras.
The trough will drift westward over the next couple of days,
enhancing shower and tstorm activity in the western Caribbean.
Winds and seas are forecast to increase over the eastern
Caribbean on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and upper-level diffluence over Florida and the
Bahamas region are leading to scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms over the entire area west of 75W from 20N-32N.
Similar convection is seen north of Hispaniola, mainly south of
22N between 68W-72W. A surface trough extends from 22N58W to
21N63W to 21N67W. Scattered showers are along and within 90 nm S
of the trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds from
23N-32N between 69W-81W. Strong N winds associated with the
circulation of Hurricane Epsilon are east of 69W and north of
25N.

In the eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends northeastward
from 29N15W to beyond 32N11W. A plume of moisture about 150 nm
wide extends from 29N15W to 25N33W to 30N48W and contains
scattered showers. Fresh winds prevail north of the moisture
plume. Gentle to moderate speeds are from 21N-26N between
15W-45W.

Hurricane Epsilon will move to near 31N61W Thu morning and to
near 34N62W Fri morning. The gradient between strong high
pressure off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and Hurricane Epsilon
will maintain fresh to strong winds and large seas over the
waters north of 25N between 69W-80W through Fri. Long-period
northeast to east swell will impact the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas through Fri night.

$$

Hagen
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