[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 21/0300 UTC, is near 28.5N
56.8W. EPSILON is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 11
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 kt.
Tropical storm-force winds are within 280 nm of the center in
the N semicircle. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are
within 510 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The maximum sea
heights are reaching 24 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong in clusters is from 200 nm to 400 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant, and from 300 nm to 400 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250
nm of the center in the NW quadrant. A surface trough is along
29N48W 28N40W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate to locally strong is from 23N northward between 40W and
50W. A surface trough is along 22N58W 20N63W 21N67W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N to 22N between 56W
and 67W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.  Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong is within 240
nm to the east of the trough. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 270 nm to the west of the trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, from 13N to 21N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 18N and SW
Haiti southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely
scattered strong, is within 520 nm to the NW of the tropical
wave from 15N to Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal,
along 14N from 17N to 20N. The ITCZ is along 05N/07N between 17W
and 28W, from 03N to 05N between 30W and 42W, and from 06N to
07N between 45W and 53W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is
within 330 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 31W and
40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the eastern half of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 87W. Abundant moisture in the eastern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico, and NE surface winds in the Atlantic Ocean
to the east of Florida, are helping to push clouds and
precipitation into the Gulf of Mexico, from 90W eastward.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

High pressure in the eastern United States, and broad low
pressure in the western Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to
strong easterly winds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 22N90W just to the north of theYucatan Peninsula, to a NW Caribbean Sea 1006 mb low pressure
center that is near 19N86W, to 16N83W, to the coast of Panama
along 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 360 nm to the west of the surface trough, in
Central America, from Panama to Honduras. Precipitation also is
between the surface trough and the 73W/74W tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 18N and SW Haiti
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely
scattered strong, is within 520 nm to the NW of the tropical
wave from 15N to Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 75W at the coast of
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. The nearby precipitation is close
to the 22N90W-to-Panama surface trough.

A broad surface trough, in the western Caribbean Sea, from the
Yucatan Channel to 12N80W, is producing scattered rainshowers
and thunderstorms to the east of the trough. The trough will
drift westward during the next couple of days. The rainshower
and thunderstorm activity in the western Caribbean Sea will be
enhanced. The wind speeds and the sea heights are expected to
increase to the south of the Windward Islands on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

NE winds, 20 to 25 knots, are in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba
and 20N northward from 72W westward. Abundant moisture is in the
same region also. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate to isolated strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 75W
westward, to Florida, and into the eastern sections of the Gulf
of Mexico.

A dissipating cold front passes through the coast of Morocco
near 31N10W, to the Canary Islands. Broad surface low pressure
covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward from
27W eastward. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 25N to 26N
between 30W and 32W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are elsewhere from
24N northward from 40W eastward.

Hurricane Epsilon near 28.5N 56.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Epsilon
will move to 29.2N 58.5W Wed morning, 29.9N 59.8W Wed evening,
31.0N 60.6W Thu morning, then north of the area on Thu. The
gradient between the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure, and
Hurricane Epsilon, will maintain strong winds and large seas in
the western waters through Friday. Long-period northeast to east
swell will impact the waters that are to the north and northeast
of the Bahamas, through Friday night.

$$
mt
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